Upset Brief · TX-03 · Evan Hunt (D) vs. Keith Self (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.1-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
57,216
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 23 (Collin County)
    Starting line Hunt +40. 4.0% split their ticket. About 862 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +138
  2. 02
    Precinct 52 (Collin County)
    Starting line Hunt +16. 9.6% split their ticket.
    +120
  3. 03
    Precinct 179 (Collin County)
    Starting line Self +40. 4.8% split their ticket.
    +83
  4. 04
    Precinct 153 (Collin County)
    Starting line Self +10. 5.1% split their ticket.
    +79
  5. 05
    Precinct 50 (Collin County)
    Starting line Hunt +22. 5.0% split their ticket. About 607 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +78
  6. 06
    Precinct 122 (Collin County)
    Starting line Self +28. 4.6% split their ticket.
    +78

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    4,429 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Self today.
    +4,429
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 5,339 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Hunt's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +380
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Hunt's way.
    +967

Plus a national shift of 20.1 points of margin (51,441 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Hunt wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Self.
  2. In Precinct 23 (Collin County) and Precinct 3 (Collin County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 20.1 points toward Hunt's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    247 precincts, R² 0.991, 31 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -81,173 to -21,942 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Hunt $43,878 cash on hand; Self $212,694.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    11,703 households, 35,108 dials, about 1,840 live conversations: an estimated $5,222 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $5,222 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.