Texas · U.S. House · District 3 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Evan Hunt.

Q: Can Evan Hunt win Texas's 3rd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 5,776 net votes; the gap is 57,216. The rest would take a 20.1-point national shift.

Q: Where are the votes Evan Hunt needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 23 (Collin County), Precinct 52 (Collin County), Precinct 179 (Collin County), Precinct 153 (Collin County), Precinct 50 (Collin County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does Evan Hunt need to persuade?

About 2,214 voters who lean Keith Self today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,429 persuadable voters leaning Keith Self.

Q: When does early voting start in Texas in 2026?

In-person early voting in Texas runs October 19 through October 30, 2026. The voter registration deadline is October 5, and applications for a mail ballot must be received by October 23. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, or by 5 p.m. the next day if postmarked by Election Day. Texas does not offer same-day registration.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Self starts 22.4 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 5,776 net votes toward Hunt, a 2.3-point gain. Winning outright would take a 20.1-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Hunt the one standing if one comes.

57,216

net votes between Hunt and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 19.

22.4 pts

Self lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Texas races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.1-point national wave.

Odds today<1%

Odds with the plan<1%

Net votes to find57,216

WherePrecinct 23 (Collin County), Precinct 52 (Collin County), Precinct 179 (Collin County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Self +22.4. Evan Hunt needs 57,216 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

The number

127,715 votes.

That is half of the 255,428 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Hunt stands today, and what is missing:

95,771 Evan Hunt baseline

152,987 Keith Self baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Railroad Commissioner, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

<1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Hunt wins in

<1%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

<1%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Hunt short by 51,491.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

4,429

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,429

Who. 4,429 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Self today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Hunt needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Self.

Mobilize

380

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 5,339

Who. At least 5,339 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Hunt's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

967

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,764

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Hunt's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 5,776 net votes against a gap of 57,216. Still 51,440 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 20.1 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 18% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 23 (Collin County)mobilize
Starting line Hunt +40. 4.0% split their ticket. About 862 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+138
02
Precinct 52 (Collin County)persuade
Starting line Hunt +16. 9.6% split their ticket.
+120
03
Precinct 179 (Collin County)persuade
Starting line Self +40. 4.8% split their ticket.
+83
04
Precinct 153 (Collin County)persuade
Starting line Self +10. 5.1% split their ticket.
+79
05
Precinct 50 (Collin County)mobilize
Starting line Hunt +22. 5.0% split their ticket. About 607 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+78
06
Precinct 122 (Collin County)persuade
Starting line Self +28. 4.6% split their ticket.
+78
07
Precinct 221 (Collin County)persuade
Starting line Self +24. 4.8% split their ticket.
+76
08
Precinct 54 (Collin County)mobilize
Starting line Hunt +20. 2.9% split their ticket. About 679 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+74
09
Precinct 25 (Collin County)persuade
Starting line Hunt +1. 4.7% split their ticket.
+73
10
Precinct 218 (Collin County)persuade
Starting line even. 5.1% split their ticket.
+71
11
Precinct 3 (Collin County)mobilize
Starting line Hunt +32. 2.4% split their ticket. About 532 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+70
12
Precinct 166 (Collin County)persuade
Starting line Self +7. 5.0% split their ticket.
+70

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 23 (Collin County) carries the most.

Precinct 23 (Collin County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 138. It sits at Hunt +40 on our starting line, and 4.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 3 (Collin County) is a turnout race.

Hunt's side leads Precinct 3 (Collin County) by about 32 points on our starting line, and it cast about 532 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 54 votes there.

Precinct 52 (Collin County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 52 (Collin County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 9.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Self had $213K in cash on hand to Hunt's $44K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Hunt's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 247
Slope: 1.049
R²: 0.991
Residual SD: 2.4 pts
Crossover precincts: 31

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Hunt's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 19.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Hunt, with Self, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,429 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Mail ballots are already going out, and in-person early voting runs October 19 through October 30. Mail ballot applications must be received by October 23. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 5,339 of them live where Hunt is favored. In-person early voting ends October 30. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on November 3, or by 5 p.m. on November 4 if postmarked by Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Texas has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 23.4 points; Cruz carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 17.6 points; Abbott carried the 2022 governor's race by 23.6 points.

Hunt wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Self.
In Precinct 23 (Collin County) and Precinct 3 (Collin County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 20.1 points toward Hunt's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

1,840 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 35,108 dials to 11,703 households, before the last ballot is cast.

12K

households on the target list

35K

dials across three attempts

1,840

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $5,222 at our published rates: 11,703 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Evan Hunt (D)

Retired U.S. Air Force lieutenant colonel and combat aviator with a 20-year military career who flew combat missions as a B-1 weapons systems officer. A McKinney community and business leader running on health care and public education.

Cash on hand $43,878 and $446,506 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Keith Self (R)

U.S. representative for the 3rd District since 2023 and Collin County judge from 2007 to 2018. A West Point engineering graduate who served 25 years in the U.S. Army and retired as a lieutenant colonel.

Cash on hand $212,694 and $645,503 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Self +22.4. Evan Hunt needs 57,216 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can Evan Hunt win Texas's 3rd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 5,776 net votes; the gap is 57,216. The rest would take a 20.1-point national shift.

Where are the votes Evan Hunt needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 23 (Collin County), Precinct 52 (Collin County), Precinct 179 (Collin County), Precinct 153 (Collin County), Precinct 50 (Collin County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Evan Hunt need to persuade?

About 2,214 voters who lean Keith Self today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,429 persuadable voters leaning Keith Self.

When does early voting start in Texas in 2026?

In-person early voting in Texas runs October 19 through October 30, 2026. The voter registration deadline is October 5, and applications for a mail ballot must be received by October 23. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, or by 5 p.m. the next day if postmarked by Election Day. Texas does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Texas Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.