A long shot on the math: it takes a 49.6-point national wave.

1. 01
   Precinct 4063 (Dallas County)

   Starting line Haynes +54. 5.5% split their ticket.
   +38
2. 02
   Precinct 4522 (Dallas County)

   Starting line Haynes +29. 3.8% split their ticket.
   +38
3. 03
   Precinct 3808 (Dallas County)

   Starting line Haynes +40. 3.1% split their ticket.
   +37
4. 04
   Precinct 4052 (Dallas County)

   Starting line Haynes +44. 3.5% split their ticket.
   +33
5. 05
   Precinct 2379 (Tarrant County)

   Starting line Haynes +37. 3.1% split their ticket.
   +32
6. 06
   Precinct 2235 (Tarrant County)

   Starting line Haynes +19. 5.4% split their ticket.
   +31

The top 12 precincts carry 14% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  2,375 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Haynes today.
  +2,375
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 26 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Jackson's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +3
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Jackson's way.
  +323

Plus a national shift of 49.6 points of margin (85,495 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Jackson wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Haynes.
2. The national environment moves about 49.6 points toward Jackson's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  248 precincts, R² 0.988, 62 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -105,626 to -65,479 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Jackson $1,159 cash on hand; Haynes $119,776.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  3,933 households, 11,798 dials, about 618 live conversations: an estimated $2,244 at published rates.