Texas · U.S. House · District 30 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Everett Jackson.

Haynes starts 51.1 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 2,701 net votes toward Jackson, a 1.6-point gain. Winning outright would take a 49.6-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Jackson the one standing if one comes.

88,196

net votes between Jackson and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 19.

51.1 pts

Haynes lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Texas races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 49.6-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find88,196

WherePrecinct 4063 (Dallas County), Precinct 4522 (Dallas County), Precinct 3808 (Dallas County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Haynes +51.1. Everett Jackson needs 88,196 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

86,212 votes.

That is half of the 172,423 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Jackson stands today, and what is missing:

40,225 Everett Jackson baseline

128,421 Frederick Haynes III baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Railroad Commissioner, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Jackson wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Jackson short by 85,368.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

2,375

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,375

Who. 2,375 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Haynes today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Jackson needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Haynes.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 26

Who. At least 26 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Jackson's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

323

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 923

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Jackson's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 2,701 net votes against a gap of 88,196. Still 85,495 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 49.6 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 14% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 4063 (Dallas County)persuade
Starting line Haynes +54. 5.5% split their ticket.
+38
02
Precinct 4522 (Dallas County)persuade
Starting line Haynes +29. 3.8% split their ticket.
+38
03
Precinct 3808 (Dallas County)persuade
Starting line Haynes +40. 3.1% split their ticket.
+37
04
Precinct 4052 (Dallas County)persuade
Starting line Haynes +44. 3.5% split their ticket.
+33
05
Precinct 2379 (Tarrant County)persuade
Starting line Haynes +37. 3.1% split their ticket.
+32
06
Precinct 2235 (Tarrant County)persuade
Starting line Haynes +19. 5.4% split their ticket.
+31
07
Precinct 2448 (Tarrant County)persuade
Starting line Haynes +25. 4.0% split their ticket.
+30
08
Precinct 3106 (Dallas County)persuade
Starting line Haynes +56. 3.4% split their ticket.
+30
09
Precinct 3207 (Dallas County)persuade
Starting line Haynes +18. 4.1% split their ticket.
+30
10
Precinct 4050 (Dallas County)persuade
Starting line Haynes +50. 2.4% split their ticket.
+28
11
Precinct 2031 (Tarrant County)persuade
Starting line Haynes +38. 3.5% split their ticket.
+28
12
Precinct 4519 (Dallas County)persuade
Starting line Haynes +20. 2.5% split their ticket.
+28

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 4063 (Dallas County) carries the most.

Precinct 4063 (Dallas County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 38. It sits at Haynes +54 on our starting line, and 5.5 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Haynes had $120K in cash on hand to Jackson's $1,159. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 2,701 net votes. The gap is 88,196. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 1.6 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Jackson's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 248
Slope: 0.962
R²: 0.988
Residual SD: 2.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 62

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Jackson's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 19.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Jackson, with Haynes, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 2,375 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Mail ballots are already going out, and in-person early voting runs October 19 through October 30. Mail ballot applications must be received by October 23. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 26 of them live where Jackson is favored. In-person early voting ends October 30. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on November 3, or by 5 p.m. on November 4 if postmarked by Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Texas has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 47.1 points; Allred carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 52.6 points; O'Rourke carried the 2022 governor's race by 54.4 points.

Jackson wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Haynes.
The national environment moves about 49.6 points toward Jackson's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

618 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 11,798 dials to 3,933 households, before the last ballot is cast.

3,933

households on the target list

12K

dials across three attempts

618

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $2,244 at our published rates: 3,933 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Everett Jackson (R)

Small business owner, community organizer and political newcomer whose platform stresses job growth, security against drug cartels, religious freedom and a larger child tax credit.

Cash on hand $1,159 and $17,215 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Frederick Haynes III (D)

Senior pastor of Friendship-West Baptist Church in Dallas since 1983, where membership grew from about 100 to more than 13,000. A Dallas native, he is a longtime civil rights and social justice advocate.

Cash on hand $119,776 and $420,153 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Haynes +51.1. Everett Jackson needs 88,196 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Everett Jackson win Texas's 30th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 2,701 net votes; the gap is 88,196. The rest would take a 49.6-point national shift.

Where are the votes Everett Jackson needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 4063 (Dallas County), Precinct 4522 (Dallas County), Precinct 3808 (Dallas County), Precinct 4052 (Dallas County), Precinct 2379 (Tarrant County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Everett Jackson need to persuade?

About 1,188 voters who lean Frederick Haynes III today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 2,375 persuadable voters leaning Frederick Haynes III.

When does early voting start in Texas in 2026?

In-person early voting in Texas runs October 19 through October 30, 2026. The voter registration deadline is October 5, and applications for a mail ballot must be received by October 23. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, or by 5 p.m. the next day if postmarked by Election Day. Texas does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Texas Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.