Upset Brief · TX-31 · Justin Early (D) vs. John Carter (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.5-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
55,295
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 414 (Bell County)
    Starting line Early +42. 2.4% split their ticket. About 918 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +147
  2. 02
    Precinct 210 (Bell County)
    Starting line Early +28. 1.2% split their ticket. About 1,328 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +140
  3. 03
    Precinct 405 (Bell County)
    Starting line Early +35. 1.7% split their ticket. About 943 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +128
  4. 04
    Precinct 408 (Bell County)
    Starting line Early +25. 2.6% split their ticket. About 1,047 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +113
  5. 05
    Precinct 413 (Bell County)
    Starting line Early +21. 2.2% split their ticket. About 1,085 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +92
  6. 06
    Precinct 208 (Bell County)
    Starting line Early +25. 2.0% split their ticket. About 717 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +82

The top 12 precincts carry 23% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,181 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Carter today.
    +3,181
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 14,869 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Early's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,163
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Early's way.
    +816

Plus a national shift of 20.5 points of margin (50,135 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Early wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Carter.
  2. In Precinct 414 (Bell County) and Precinct 210 (Bell County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 20.5 points toward Early's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    210 precincts, R² 0.996, 31 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -77,628 to -21,642 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Early $17,400 cash on hand; Carter $170,827.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    16,258 households, 48,775 dials, about 2,556 live conversations: an estimated $6,446 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,446 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.