A long shot on the math: it takes a 36.1-point national wave.

1. 01
   Precinct 1060 (Dallas County)

   Starting line Allred +33. 5.0% split their ticket.
   +84
2. 02
   Precinct 2605 (Dallas County)

   Starting line Allred +28. 7.6% split their ticket.
   +58
3. 03
   Precinct 4079 (Dallas County)

   Starting line Allred +51. 4.1% split their ticket.
   +57
4. 04
   Precinct 2602 (Dallas County)

   Starting line Allred +27. 6.0% split their ticket.
   +54
5. 05
   Precinct 2102 (Dallas County)

   Starting line Allred +15. 4.1% split their ticket.
   +51
6. 06
   Precinct 3000 (Dallas County)

   Starting line Allred +14. 4.4% split their ticket.
   +51

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  3,128 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Allred today.
  +3,128
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 110 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Gillespie's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +23
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Gillespie's way.
  +415

Plus a national shift of 36.1 points of margin (54,181 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Gillespie wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Allred.
2. The national environment moves about 36.1 points toward Gillespie's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  258 precincts, R² 0.958, 63 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -71,501 to -36,605 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Gillespie no FEC totals reported; Allred $159,887.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  5,211 households, 15,633 dials, about 819 live conversations: an estimated $2,714 at published rates.