What it would have taken for Patrick Gillespie.
Before the election, as last updated September 26, 2026: Allred starts 38.5 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 3,566 net votes toward Gillespie, a 2.4-point gain. Winning outright would take a 36.1-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Gillespie the one standing if one comes.
Colin Allred won.
Patrick Gillespie finished 18.7 points behind our starting line. The plan below stays up as the record of what it would have taken.
Projected winner; unofficial results until the state certifies. Source · Second source
A long shot on the math: it takes a 36.1-point national wave.
74,955 votes.
That is half of the 149,908 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Gillespie stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Railroad Commissioner, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 3,128 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Allred today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Gillespie needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Allred.
Who. Few precincts give Gillespie's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 3,566 net votes against a gap of 57,747. Still 54,181 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 36.1 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 18% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+84Precinct 1060 (Dallas County)persuadeStarting line Allred +33. 5.0% split their ticket.
- 02+58Precinct 2605 (Dallas County)persuadeStarting line Allred +28. 7.6% split their ticket.
- 03+57Precinct 4079 (Dallas County)persuadeStarting line Allred +51. 4.1% split their ticket.
- 04+54Precinct 2602 (Dallas County)persuadeStarting line Allred +27. 6.0% split their ticket.
- 05+51Precinct 2102 (Dallas County)persuadeStarting line Allred +15. 4.1% split their ticket.
- 06+51Precinct 3000 (Dallas County)persuadeStarting line Allred +14. 4.4% split their ticket.
- 07+50Precinct 1048 (Dallas County)persuadeStarting line Allred +20. 4.6% split their ticket.
- 08+48Precinct 2603 (Dallas County)persuadeStarting line Allred +26. 5.7% split their ticket.
- 09+48Precinct 2147 (Dallas County)persuadeStarting line Allred +25. 6.6% split their ticket.
- 10+44Precinct 2604 (Dallas County)persuadeStarting line Allred +30. 4.9% split their ticket.
- 11+44Precinct 4521 (Dallas County)persuadeStarting line Allred +15. 3.5% split their ticket.
- 12+43Precinct 2099 (Dallas County)persuadeStarting line Allred +44. 3.7% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Precinct 1060 (Dallas County) carries the most.
Precinct 1060 (Dallas County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 84. It sits at Allred +33 on our starting line, and 5.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 2605 (Dallas County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 2605 (Dallas County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 7.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 3,566 net votes. The gap is 57,747. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.4 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Gillespie's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 258
- Slope
- 0.976
- R²
- 0.958
- Residual SD
- 3.5 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 63
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Gillespie's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
The calendar it ran on.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Gillespie, with Allred, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 18Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,128 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 19 to 25Bank the ballots
Mail ballots are already going out, and in-person early voting runs October 19 through October 30. Mail ballot applications must be received by October 23. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 26 to November 2Turn them out
The last push goes to every identified supporter who has not voted yet; few drop-off voters live where Gillespie is favored, so this is a chase, not a turnout drive. In-person early voting ends October 30. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on November 3, or by 5 p.m. on November 4 if postmarked by Election Day.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Texas has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 32.7 points; Allred carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 40.1 points; O'Rourke carried the 2022 governor's race by 44.0 points.
- Gillespie wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Allred.
- It would take a national shift of about 36.1 points toward Gillespie's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
819 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan called for: about 15,633 dials to 5,211 households, before the last ballot was cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
Running next cycle? We run lists like this.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $2,714 at our published rates: 5,211 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Patrick Gillespie (R)
Customs broker and former technical writer who worked for Boeing and BAE Systems, and a former vice president of International Association of Machinists Local Lodge 2768.
Colin Allred (D)
Former U.S. representative for the 32nd District (2019 to 2025), civil rights attorney and former Tennessee Titans linebacker; a Baylor and UC Berkeley law graduate who served at HUD in the Obama administration.
Cash on hand $159,887 and $7,431,941 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-ran this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrived, and logged the result against the plan. Every change is listed here.
- November 5, 2026Result: Patrick Gillespie lost
Unofficial result: Patrick Gillespie 21.4%, Colin Allred 78.6%, a margin of 57.2 points. Our starting line had Allred +38.5; Gillespie fell short of that line by 18.7 points. This page stays up as the record of the plan and how it compared with the outcome.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Allred +38.5. Patrick Gillespie needs 57,747 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.
Questions
Who won TX-33 in 2026?
Colin Allred won on November 3, 2026. Unofficial result: Patrick Gillespie 21.4%, Colin Allred 78.6%, a margin of 57.2 points. Our starting line had Allred +38.5; Gillespie fell short of that line by 18.7 points.
Can Patrick Gillespie win Texas's 33rd Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 3,566 net votes against a gap of 57,747; the rest would take a 36.1-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Patrick Gillespie needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 1060 (Dallas County), Precinct 2605 (Dallas County), Precinct 4079 (Dallas County), Precinct 2602 (Dallas County), Precinct 2102 (Dallas County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Patrick Gillespie need to persuade?
About 1,564 voters who lean Colin Allred today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,128 persuadable voters leaning Colin Allred.
When does early voting start in Texas in 2026?
In-person early voting in Texas runs October 19 through October 30, 2026. The voter registration deadline is October 5, and applications for a mail ballot must be received by October 23. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, or by 5 p.m. the next day if postmarked by Election Day. Texas does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Texas Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Texas Secretary of State, election results
- Texas Legislative Council redistricting (PLANC2333)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)