Upset Brief · TX-34 · Eric Flores (R) vs. Vicente Gonzalez (D), incumbent

Flores can win. The math closes using 29 percent of what history allows.

50%
odds today
66%
odds with the plan
3,399
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 54 (Cameron County)
    Starting line Gonzalez +20. 5.6% split their ticket.
    +123
  2. 02
    Precinct 98 (Cameron County)
    Starting line Gonzalez +16. 6.4% split their ticket.
    +120
  3. 03
    Precinct 3 (Cameron County)
    Starting line Gonzalez +4. 5.3% split their ticket.
    +117
  4. 04
    Precinct 107 (Nueces County)
    Starting line Flores +41. 2.5% split their ticket. About 693 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +106
  5. 05
    Precinct 100 (Cameron County)
    Starting line Gonzalez +7. 6.3% split their ticket.
    +101
  6. 06
    Precinct 48 (Cameron County)
    Starting line Gonzalez +14. 5.6% split their ticket.
    +101

The top 12 precincts carry 34% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    Ticket splitters and the 8 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 10,385 leaning Gonzalez today.
    +2,983
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 15,589 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Flores's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +398
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Flores's way.
    +188
What has to be true
  1. Flores wins 14 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Gonzalez.
  2. In Precinct 107 (Nueces County) and Precinct 40 (Nueces County), 10 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 29 percent of what recent Texas results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    240 precincts, R² 0.970, 55 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -10,629 to 17,785 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Flores $686,332 cash on hand; Gonzalez $2,532,412.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    6,283 households, 18,850 dials, about 988 live conversations: an estimated $3,272 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $3,272 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.