Texas · U.S. House · District 34 · November 3, 2026

How Eric Flores wins.

A true toss-up between Flores and Gonzalez: the 3 public 2026 polls average within one point. In a tied race, the plan aims for a 2-point cushion: 3,399 net votes, most of them in Precinct 54 (Cameron County), Precinct 98 (Cameron County) and Precinct 3 (Cameron County).

3,399

net votes between Flores and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 19.

Tied

our starting line: a toss-up in 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Texas races ranked ›

Flores can win. The math closes using 29 percent of what history allows.

Odds today50%

Odds with the plan66%

Net votes to find3,399

WherePrecinct 54 (Cameron County), Precinct 98 (Cameron County), Precinct 3 (Cameron County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Gonzalez +0.0. Eric Flores needs 3,399 net votes. Odds 35% today, 51% with the plan.

The number

84,985 votes.

That is half of the 169,969 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Flores stands today, and what is missing:

83,063 Eric Flores baseline

83,063 Vicente Gonzalez baseline

Starting line: a tie (the 3 public 2026 polls average within one point), applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. In a tied race the plan aims for a 2-point cushion. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

50% today. 66% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Flores wins in

66%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

50%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves29%

The plan on this page sits at 29%. Median outcome at this setting: Flores by 3,591.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

2,983

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 10,385

Who. Ticket splitters and the 8 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 10,385 leaning Gonzalez today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Flores needs to win 14 percent of the ones now leaning Gonzalez.

Mobilize

398

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 15,589

Who. At least 15,589 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Flores's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

188

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,873

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Flores's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 3,569 net votes against a gap of 3,399. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 34% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 54 (Cameron County)persuade
Starting line Gonzalez +20. 5.6% split their ticket.
+123
02
Precinct 98 (Cameron County)persuade
Starting line Gonzalez +16. 6.4% split their ticket.
+120
03
Precinct 3 (Cameron County)persuade
Starting line Gonzalez +4. 5.3% split their ticket.
+117
04
Precinct 107 (Nueces County)mobilize
Starting line Flores +41. 2.5% split their ticket. About 693 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+106
05
Precinct 100 (Cameron County)persuade
Starting line Gonzalez +7. 6.3% split their ticket.
+101
06
Precinct 48 (Cameron County)persuade
Starting line Gonzalez +14. 5.6% split their ticket.
+101
07
Precinct 46 (Cameron County)persuade
Starting line Gonzalez +17. 7.1% split their ticket.
+100
08
Precinct 72 (Cameron County)persuade
Starting line Gonzalez +13. 5.4% split their ticket.
+95
09
Precinct 40 (Nueces County)mobilize
Starting line Flores +45. 2.1% split their ticket. About 523 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+93
10
Precinct 4 (Cameron County)persuade
Starting line Flores +4. 5.4% split their ticket.
+89
11
Precinct 17 (Cameron County)persuade
Starting line Gonzalez +10. 5.7% split their ticket.
+80
12
Precinct 81 (Nueces County)mobilize
Starting line Flores +43. 2.4% split their ticket. About 463 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+79

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 54 (Cameron County) carries the most.

Precinct 54 (Cameron County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 123. It sits at Gonzalez +20 on our starting line, and 5.6 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 107 (Nueces County) is a turnout race.

Flores's side leads Precinct 107 (Nueces County) by about 41 points on our starting line, and it cast about 693 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 95 votes there.

Precinct 46 (Cameron County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 46 (Cameron County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 7.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Gonzalez had $2.53 million in cash on hand to Flores's $686K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Flores's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 240
Slope: 1.082
R²: 0.970
Residual SD: 3.4 pts
Crossover precincts: 55

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Flores's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 19.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Flores, with Gonzalez, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 2,983 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Mail ballots are already going out, and in-person early voting runs October 19 through October 30. Mail ballot applications must be received by October 23. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 15,589 of them live where Flores is favored. In-person early voting ends October 30. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on November 3, or by 5 p.m. on November 4 if postmarked by Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Texas has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 10.1 points; Cruz carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 1.9 points; Abbott carried the 2022 governor's race by 1.3 points.

Flores wins 14 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Gonzalez.
In Precinct 107 (Nueces County) and Precinct 40 (Nueces County), 10 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 29 percent of what recent Texas results show is possible.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

988 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 18,850 dials to 6,283 households, before the last ballot is cast.

6,283

households on the target list

19K

dials across three attempts

988

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $3,272 at our published rates: 6,283 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Eric Flores (R)

Former assistant U.S. attorney in the Southern District of Texas (2021 to 2025) who prosecuted transnational human smuggling cases, former Alton city attorney and municipal judge, and Army National Guard officer; a Rio Grande Valley native.

Cash on hand $686,332 and $2,758,316 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Vicente Gonzalez (D)

U.S. representative for the 34th District since 2023 who previously represented the 15th District from 2017; a Corpus Christi-born attorney with degrees from Del Mar College, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University and Texas Wesleyan law school who serves on the House Financial Services Committee.

Cash on hand $2,532,412 and $3,773,915 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Chris Royal (L)

U.S. Army and Desert Storm veteran with a philosophy degree who has worked as an attorney, mortgage broker, title examiner and teacher.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Eddie Espinoza (G)

Former teacher and U.S. Army veteran (1989 to 1991) who graduated from the University of Texas Pan American and was the Green nominee for Texas Railroad Commissioner in 2024.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Gonzalez +0.0. Eric Flores needs 3,399 net votes. Odds 35% today, 51% with the plan.

Questions

Can Eric Flores win Texas's 34th Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Eric Flores needs 3,399 net votes, and recent Texas results show about 12,426 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 29 percent of that.

Where are the votes Eric Flores needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 54 (Cameron County), Precinct 98 (Cameron County), Precinct 3 (Cameron County), Precinct 107 (Nueces County), Precinct 100 (Cameron County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Eric Flores need to persuade?

About 1,492 voters who lean Vicente Gonzalez today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 14 percent of the 10,385 persuadable voters leaning Vicente Gonzalez.

When does early voting start in Texas in 2026?

In-person early voting in Texas runs October 19 through October 30, 2026. The voter registration deadline is October 5, and applications for a mail ballot must be received by October 23. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, or by 5 p.m. the next day if postmarked by Election Day. Texas does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Texas Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.