Upset Brief · TX-38 · Melissa McDonough (D) vs. Jon Bonck (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 18.9-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
55,417
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 309 (Harris County)
    Starting line Bonck +28. 7.8% split their ticket.
    +107
  2. 02
    Precinct 512 (Harris County)
    Starting line McDonough +15. 5.2% split their ticket. About 988 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +103
  3. 03
    Precinct 234 (Harris County)
    Starting line Bonck +21. 6.5% split their ticket.
    +100
  4. 04
    Precinct 116 (Harris County)
    Starting line Bonck +28. 7.9% split their ticket.
    +100
  5. 05
    Precinct 438 (Harris County)
    Starting line Bonck +26. 6.7% split their ticket.
    +89
  6. 06
    Precinct 265 (Harris County)
    Starting line Bonck +25. 6.6% split their ticket.
    +88

The top 12 precincts carry 17% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    5,248 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bonck today.
    +5,248
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 2,924 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where McDonough's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +178
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean McDonough's way.
    +847

Plus a national shift of 18.9 points of margin (49,144 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. McDonough wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bonck.
  2. In Precinct 512 (Harris County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 18.9 points toward McDonough's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    174 precincts, R² 0.985, 30 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -79,661 to -18,710 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    McDonough $43,939 cash on hand; Bonck $89,133.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    10,930 households, 32,790 dials, about 1,718 live conversations: an estimated $4,877 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $4,877 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.