What it would take for Melissa McDonough.
Bonck starts 21.3 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 6,273 net votes toward McDonough, a 2.4-point gain. Winning outright would take a 18.9-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes McDonough the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 18.9-point national wave.
130,235 votes.
That is half of the 260,468 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where McDonough stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Railroad Commissioner, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
<1% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 5,248 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bonck today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. McDonough needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Bonck.
Who. At least 2,924 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where McDonough's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean McDonough's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 6,273 net votes against a gap of 55,417. Still 49,144 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 18.9 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 17% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+107Precinct 309 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Bonck +28. 7.8% split their ticket.
- 02+103Precinct 512 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line McDonough +15. 5.2% split their ticket. About 988 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+100Precinct 234 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Bonck +21. 6.5% split their ticket.
- 04+100Precinct 116 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Bonck +28. 7.9% split their ticket.
- 05+89Precinct 438 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Bonck +26. 6.7% split their ticket.
- 06+88Precinct 265 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Bonck +25. 6.6% split their ticket.
- 07+87Precinct 258 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Bonck +29. 7.1% split their ticket.
- 08+86Precinct 440 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Bonck +38. 7.9% split their ticket.
- 09+82Precinct 213 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Bonck +44. 6.2% split their ticket.
- 10+81Precinct 155 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Bonck +11. 5.4% split their ticket.
- 11+76Precinct 439 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Bonck +14. 5.5% split their ticket.
- 12+75Precinct 135 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Bonck +4. 6.4% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Precinct 309 (Harris County) carries the most.
Precinct 309 (Harris County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 107. It sits at Bonck +28 on our starting line, and 7.8 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 512 (Harris County) is a turnout race.
McDonough's side leads Precinct 512 (Harris County) by about 15 points on our starting line, and it cast about 988 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 44 votes there.
Precinct 116 (Harris County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 116 (Harris County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 7.9 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Bonck had $89K in cash on hand to McDonough's $44K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where McDonough's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 174
- Slope
- 1.033
- R²
- 0.985
- Residual SD
- 2.0 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 30
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: McDonough's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 19.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with McDonough, with Bonck, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 18Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 5,248 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 19 to 25Bank the ballots
Mail ballots are already going out, and in-person early voting runs October 19 through October 30. Mail ballot applications must be received by October 23. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 26 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 2,924 of them live where McDonough is favored. In-person early voting ends October 30. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on November 3, or by 5 p.m. on November 4 if postmarked by Election Day.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Texas has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 20.9 points; Cruz carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 15.7 points; Abbott carried the 2022 governor's race by 22.4 points.
- McDonough wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bonck.
- In Precinct 512 (Harris County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 18.9 points toward McDonough's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
1,718 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 32,790 dials to 10,930 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $4,877 at our published rates: 10,930 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Melissa McDonough (D)
Tomball Realtor with nearly 30 years of experience who has owned a real estate brokerage for 20 years and has advocated before Congress on consumer protection and health care. She has also served as a presiding election judge in Harris County.
Cash on hand $43,939 and $66,929 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Jon Bonck (R)
Greater Houston mortgage and real estate professional with more than two decades in the business, including years as a sales manager and partner at Bonck and Baker Mortgage Group. He holds a biochemistry degree from Louisiana State University.
Cash on hand $89,133 and $1,644,127 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Alex McMenemy (G)
Tomball native and human rights advocate running as a democratic socialist in a first bid for office.
Cash on hand $806 and $9,888 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Bonck +21.3. Melissa McDonough needs 55,417 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.
Questions
Can Melissa McDonough win Texas's 38th Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 6,273 net votes; the gap is 55,417. The rest would take a 18.9-point national shift.
Where are the votes Melissa McDonough needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 309 (Harris County), Precinct 512 (Harris County), Precinct 234 (Harris County), Precinct 116 (Harris County), Precinct 438 (Harris County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Melissa McDonough need to persuade?
About 2,624 voters who lean Jon Bonck today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 5,248 persuadable voters leaning Jon Bonck.
When does early voting start in Texas in 2026?
In-person early voting in Texas runs October 19 through October 30, 2026. The voter registration deadline is October 5, and applications for a mail ballot must be received by October 23. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, or by 5 p.m. the next day if postmarked by Election Day. Texas does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Texas Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Texas Secretary of State, election results
- Texas Legislative Council redistricting (PLANC2333)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)