Upset Brief · TX-04 · Jason Pearce (D) vs. Pat Fallon (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 21.0-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
61,109
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 19
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 167 (Collin County)
    Starting line Pearce +14. 2.6% split their ticket. About 940 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +85
  2. 02
    Precinct 34 (Collin County)
    Starting line Pearce +14. 3.8% split their ticket. About 601 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +85
  3. 03
    Precinct 1032 (Denton County)
    Starting line Fallon +15. 4.9% split their ticket.
    +66
  4. 04
    Precinct 109 (Collin County)
    Starting line Fallon +9. 4.6% split their ticket.
    +65
  5. 05
    Precinct 250 (Collin County)
    Starting line Pearce +4. 6.7% split their ticket.
    +64
  6. 06
    Precinct 121 (Collin County)
    Starting line Pearce +19. 3.8% split their ticket. About 414 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +64

The top 12 precincts carry 15% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    4,253 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Fallon today.
    +4,253
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 6,201 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Pearce's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +331
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Pearce's way.
    +833

Plus a national shift of 21 points of margin (55,692 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Pearce wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Fallon.
  2. In Precinct 167 (Collin County) and Precinct 85 (Collin County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 21.0 points toward Pearce's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    250 precincts, R² 0.996, 51 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -86,702 to -24,969 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Pearce $2,086 cash on hand; Fallon $1,097,026.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    11,790 households, 35,370 dials, about 1,853 live conversations: an estimated $5,261 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $5,261 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.