What it would take for Jason Pearce.
Fallon starts 23.1 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 5,417 net votes toward Pearce, a 2.0-point gain. Winning outright would take a 21.0-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Pearce the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 21.0-point national wave.
132,408 votes.
That is half of the 264,815 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Pearce stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Railroad Commissioner, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
<1% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 4,253 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Fallon today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Pearce needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Fallon.
Who. At least 6,201 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Pearce's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Pearce's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 5,417 net votes against a gap of 61,109. Still 55,692 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 21 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 15% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+85Precinct 167 (Collin County)mobilizeStarting line Pearce +14. 2.6% split their ticket. About 940 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+85Precinct 34 (Collin County)persuadeStarting line Pearce +14. 3.8% split their ticket. About 601 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+66Precinct 1032 (Denton County)persuadeStarting line Fallon +15. 4.9% split their ticket.
- 04+65Precinct 109 (Collin County)persuadeStarting line Fallon +9. 4.6% split their ticket.
- 05+64Precinct 250 (Collin County)persuadeStarting line Pearce +4. 6.7% split their ticket.
- 06+64Precinct 121 (Collin County)persuadeStarting line Pearce +19. 3.8% split their ticket. About 414 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 07+63Precinct 87 (Collin County)persuadeStarting line Pearce +13. 7.3% split their ticket.
- 08+61Precinct 132 (Collin County)persuadeStarting line Pearce +15. 4.3% split their ticket. About 420 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 09+61Precinct 85 (Collin County)mobilizeStarting line Pearce +17. 2.6% split their ticket. About 622 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 10+61Precinct 1172 (Denton County)persuadeStarting line Fallon +25. 5.3% split their ticket.
- 11+61Precinct 220 (Collin County)persuadeStarting line Pearce +5. 4.4% split their ticket.
- 12+60Precinct 116 (Collin County)persuadeStarting line Fallon +7. 3.5% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Precinct 167 (Collin County) carries the most.
Precinct 167 (Collin County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 85. It sits at Pearce +14 on our starting line, and 2.6 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 85 (Collin County) is a turnout race.
Pearce's side leads Precinct 85 (Collin County) by about 17 points on our starting line, and it cast about 622 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 30 votes there.
Precinct 87 (Collin County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 87 (Collin County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 7.3 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Fallon had $1.10 million in cash on hand to Pearce's $2,086. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Pearce's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 250
- Slope
- 1.035
- R²
- 0.996
- Residual SD
- 2.0 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 51
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Pearce's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 19.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Pearce, with Fallon, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 18Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,253 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 19 to 25Bank the ballots
Mail ballots are already going out, and in-person early voting runs October 19 through October 30. Mail ballot applications must be received by October 23. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 26 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 6,201 of them live where Pearce is favored. In-person early voting ends October 30. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on November 3, or by 5 p.m. on November 4 if postmarked by Election Day.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Texas has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 24.7 points; Cruz carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 19.8 points; Abbott carried the 2022 governor's race by 24.1 points.
- Pearce wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Fallon.
- In Precinct 167 (Collin County) and Precinct 85 (Collin County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 21.0 points toward Pearce's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
1,853 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 35,370 dials to 11,790 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $5,261 at our published rates: 11,790 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Jason Pearce (D)
Born and raised in Plano, Jason Pearce built his career in sales, finance and insurance, including work as a mortgage loan originator. He won the March 3 Democratic primary with 52.0 percent on a platform of term limits and getting money out of politics.
Cash on hand $2,086 and $16,271 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Pat Fallon (R)
U.S. representative for the 4th District since 2021; previously served in the Texas House (2013 to 2019) and the Texas Senate (2019 to 2021).
Cash on hand $1,097,026 and $790,505 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Fallon +23.1. Jason Pearce needs 61,113 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.
Questions
Can Jason Pearce win Texas's 4th Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 5,417 net votes; the gap is 61,109. The rest would take a 21.0-point national shift.
Where are the votes Jason Pearce needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 167 (Collin County), Precinct 34 (Collin County), Precinct 1032 (Denton County), Precinct 109 (Collin County), Precinct 250 (Collin County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Jason Pearce need to persuade?
About 2,126 voters who lean Pat Fallon today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,253 persuadable voters leaning Pat Fallon.
When does early voting start in Texas in 2026?
In-person early voting in Texas runs October 19 through October 30, 2026. The voter registration deadline is October 5, and applications for a mail ballot must be received by October 23. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, or by 5 p.m. the next day if postmarked by Election Day. Texas does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Texas Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Texas Secretary of State, election results
- Texas Legislative Council redistricting (PLANC2333)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Texas's 4th congressional district
- Ballotpedia: Texas' 4th Congressional District election, 2026
- Ballotpedia: Pat Fallon