A long shot on the math: it takes a 24.4-point national wave.

1. 01
   Precinct 15 (Harris County)

   Starting line Fletcher +16. 9.2% split their ticket.
   +102
2. 02
   Precinct 70 (Harris County)

   Starting line Fletcher +11. 6.8% split their ticket.
   +99
3. 03
   Precinct 86 (Harris County)

   Starting line Fletcher +26. 6.9% split their ticket.
   +97
4. 04
   Precinct 57 (Harris County)

   Starting line Fletcher +44. 7.7% split their ticket.
   +97
5. 05
   Precinct 3147 (Fort Bend County)

   Starting line Fletcher +19. 7.4% split their ticket.
   +96
6. 06
   Precinct 204 (Harris County)

   Starting line Fletcher +14. 6.4% split their ticket.
   +94

The top 12 precincts carry 21% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  4,713 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Fletcher today.
  +4,713
• M
  Mobilize

  Few precincts give Hale's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
  +669

Plus a national shift of 24.4 points of margin (45,854 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Hale wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Fletcher.
2. It would take a national shift of about 24.4 points toward Hale's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  169 precincts, R² 0.947, 25 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -67,405 to -23,929 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Hale $6,342 cash on hand; Fletcher $1,702,706.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  7,822 households, 23,467 dials, about 1,230 live conversations: an estimated $3,685 at published rates.