What it would take for Alexander Hale.
Fletcher starts 27.3 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 5,382 net votes toward Hale, a 2.9-point gain. Winning outright would take a 24.4-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Hale the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 24.4-point national wave.
93,774 votes.
That is half of the 187,546 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Hale stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, U.S. Senate, Railroad Commissioner, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 4,713 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Fletcher today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Hale needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Fletcher.
Who. At least 1 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Hale's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Hale's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 5,382 net votes against a gap of 51,235. Still 45,853 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 24.4 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 21% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+102Precinct 15 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Fletcher +16. 9.2% split their ticket.
- 02+99Precinct 70 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Fletcher +11. 6.8% split their ticket.
- 03+97Precinct 86 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Fletcher +26. 6.9% split their ticket.
- 04+97Precinct 57 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Fletcher +44. 7.7% split their ticket.
- 05+96Precinct 3147 (Fort Bend County)persuadeStarting line Fletcher +19. 7.4% split their ticket.
- 06+94Precinct 204 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Fletcher +14. 6.4% split their ticket.
- 07+94Precinct 3135 (Fort Bend County)persuadeStarting line Fletcher +12. 4.0% split their ticket.
- 08+91Precinct 133 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Fletcher +14. 8.7% split their ticket.
- 09+90Precinct 222 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Fletcher +36. 8.4% split their ticket.
- 10+88Precinct 919 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Fletcher +15. 7.1% split their ticket.
- 11+88Precinct 87 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Fletcher +5. 7.9% split their ticket.
- 12+85Precinct 3 (Harris County)persuadeStarting line Fletcher +39. 7.0% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Precinct 15 (Harris County) carries the most.
Precinct 15 (Harris County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 102. It sits at Fletcher +16 on our starting line, and 9.2 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Fletcher had $1.70 million in cash on hand to Hale's $6,342. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 5,382 net votes. The gap is 51,235. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.9 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Hale's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 169
- Slope
- 0.923
- R²
- 0.947
- Residual SD
- 3.5 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 25
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Hale's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 19.
- Now to October 5Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Hale, with Fletcher, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 6 to 18Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,713 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 19 to 25Bank the ballots
Mail ballots are already going out, and in-person early voting runs October 19 through October 30. Mail ballot applications must be received by October 23. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 26 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 1 of them live where Hale is favored. In-person early voting ends October 30. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on November 3, or by 5 p.m. on November 4 if postmarked by Election Day.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Texas has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 23.4 points; Allred carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 29.0 points; O'Rourke carried the 2022 governor's race by 31.4 points.
- Hale wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Fletcher.
- The national environment moves about 24.4 points toward Hale's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
1,230 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 23,467 dials to 7,822 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $3,685 at our published rates: 7,822 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Alexander Hale (R)
Energy and chemicals consultant and Baylor University graduate who won the May 26 Republican runoff. He was endorsed in the primary by the Houston Chronicle.
Cash on hand $6,342 and $76,578 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Lizzie Fletcher (D)
U.S. representative for the 7th District since 2019 and a Houston attorney; a Kenyon College history graduate with a J.D. from William & Mary Law School.
Cash on hand $1,702,706 and $1,426,057 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Espoir Ngabo (G)
Houston IT professional with nearly a decade in information technology, rooted in Alief, Sharpstown and Gulfton; campaigning on flood protection, transit and a no-corporate-money pledge.
Cash on hand $0 and $3,133 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Fletcher +27.3. Alexander Hale needs 51,235 net votes. Odds 0% today, under 1% with the plan.
Questions
Can Alexander Hale win Texas's 7th Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 5,382 net votes; the gap is 51,235. The rest would take a 24.4-point national shift.
Where are the votes Alexander Hale needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 15 (Harris County), Precinct 70 (Harris County), Precinct 86 (Harris County), Precinct 57 (Harris County), Precinct 3147 (Fort Bend County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Alexander Hale need to persuade?
About 2,356 voters who lean Lizzie Fletcher today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,713 persuadable voters leaning Lizzie Fletcher.
When does early voting start in Texas in 2026?
In-person early voting in Texas runs October 19 through October 30, 2026. The voter registration deadline is October 5, and applications for a mail ballot must be received by October 23. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, or by 5 p.m. the next day if postmarked by Election Day. Texas does not offer same-day registration.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Texas Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Texas Secretary of State, election results
- Texas Legislative Council redistricting (PLANC2333)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Texas's 7th congressional district
- Ballotpedia: Texas' 7th Congressional District election, 2026
- Ballotpedia: Alexander Hale
- Ballotpedia: Lizzie Pannill Fletcher