Upset Brief · Texas U.S. Senate · Ken Paxton (R) vs. James Talarico (D)

Paxton can win. The plan uses 63 percent of what history allows.

26%
odds today
51%
odds with the plan
265,529
net votes to find
James Talarico won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Harris County
    Starting line Talarico +23. 38,498 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 460,219 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +33,097
  2. 02
    Dallas County
    Starting line Talarico +40. 22,067 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 229,059 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +18,722
  3. 03
    Tarrant County
    Starting line Talarico +10. 19,105 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 235,372 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +15,919
  4. 04
    Bexar County
    Starting line Talarico +28. 17,898 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 220,034 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +13,603
  5. 05
    Travis County
    Starting line Talarico +59. 15,571 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 122,904 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +11,874
  6. 06
    Collin County
    Starting line Talarico +6. 12,314 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 153,966 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +11,845

The top 12 counties carry 52% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    257,221 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Talarico, plus the 3 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +161,306
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 1,213,162 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Paxton's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +101,757
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Paxton's way.
    +15,741
What has to be true
  1. Paxton wins 31 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Talarico.
  2. In the precincts Paxton's side carries in Montgomery County and Parker County, 22 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 63 percent of what recent Texas results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    9,533 precincts, R² 0.995, 1,706 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -662,926 to 698,805 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Paxton $1,755,783 cash on hand; Talarico $21,548,155.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    624,061 households, 1,872,182 dials, about 98,102 live conversations: an estimated $171,554 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $171,554 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Texas races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.