Texas · U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026

How Ken Paxton wins.

Talarico starts 3.3 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Paxton needs 265,529 net votes, and the math closes using 63 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Harris County, Dallas County and Tarrant County.

265,529

net votes between Paxton and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 19.

3.3 pts

Talarico lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Texas races ranked ›

Paxton can win. The math closes using 63 percent of what history allows.

Odds today26%

Odds with the plan51%

Net votes to find265,529

WhereHarris County, Dallas County, Tarrant County

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Talarico +2.6. Ken Paxton needs 215,191 net votes. Odds 30% today, 51% with the plan.

The number

4,072,128 votes.

That is half of the 8,144,255 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Paxton stands today, and what is missing:

3,861,164 Ken Paxton baseline

4,126,693 James Talarico baseline

Starting line: Talarico +3.3 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each county's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

26% today. 51% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Paxton wins in

51%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

26%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves63%

The plan on this page sits at 63%. Median outcome at this setting: Paxton by 13,012.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

161K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 257,221

Who. Ticket splitters and the 3 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 257,221 leaning Talarico today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Paxton needs to win 31 percent of the ones now leaning Talarico.

Mobilize

102K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,213,162

Who. At least 1,213,162 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Paxton's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

16K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 71,718

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Paxton's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 278,804 net votes against a gap of 265,529. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 counties carry 52% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Harris Countypersuade
Starting line Talarico +23. 38,498 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 460,219 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+33,097
02
Dallas Countypersuade
Starting line Talarico +40. 22,067 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 229,059 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+18,722
03
Tarrant Countypersuade
Starting line Talarico +10. 19,105 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 235,372 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+15,919
04
Bexar Countypersuade
Starting line Talarico +28. 17,898 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 220,034 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+13,603
05
Travis Countypersuade
Starting line Talarico +59. 15,571 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 122,904 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+11,874
06
Collin Countypersuade
Starting line Talarico +6. 12,314 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 153,966 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+11,845
07
Montgomery Countymobilize
Starting line Paxton +31. 6,118 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 99,464 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+9,739
08
Denton Countypersuade
Starting line Talarico +2. 9,972 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 131,128 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+8,040
09
Fort Bend Countypersuade
Starting line Talarico +18. 8,316 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 113,426 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+7,384
10
Hidalgo Countypersuade
Starting line Talarico +24. 5,803 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 74,493 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+5,345
11
Parker Countymobilize
Starting line Paxton +51. 1,707 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 27,737 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+4,570
12
Williamson Countypersuade
Starting line Talarico +14. 6,656 persuadable voters leaning Talarico; 84,395 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+3,563

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Harris County holds the biggest share of the plan.

Harris County gives this plan more net votes than any other county: 33,097. It sits at Talarico +23 on our starting line.

Montgomery County is a turnout race.

In the precincts Paxton's side carries in Montgomery County, bringing back people who voted in 2024 and skipped the 2022 midterm nets 6,551 votes in this plan.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Talarico had $21.55 million in cash on hand to Paxton's $1.76 million. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Paxton's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 9,533
Slope: 1.026
R²: 0.995
Residual SD: 2.9 pts
Crossover precincts: 1,706

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Paxton's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 19.

Now to October 5
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these counties. Every conversation tags the voter: with Paxton, with Talarico, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 6 to 18
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 161,306 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 19 to 25
Bank the ballots
Mail ballots are already going out, and in-person early voting runs October 19 through October 30. Mail ballot applications must be received by October 23. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 1,213,162 of them live where Paxton is favored. In-person early voting ends October 30. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on November 3, or by 5 p.m. on November 4 if postmarked by Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Texas has no same-day registration; the registration deadline is October 5. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results statewide: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 13.7 points; Cruz carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 8.5 points; Abbott carried the 2022 governor's race by 10.9 points.

Paxton wins 31 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Talarico.
In the precincts Paxton's side carries in Montgomery County and Parker County, 22 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 63 percent of what recent Texas results show is possible.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

98,102 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 1,872,182 dials to 624,061 households, before the last ballot is cast.

624K

households on the target list

1,872K

dials across three attempts

98K

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $171,554 at our published rates: 624,061 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Ken Paxton (R)

Attorney General of Texas since 2015 who previously served in the Texas House (2003 to 2013) and Texas Senate (2013 to 2015). He holds bachelor's and MBA degrees from Baylor University and a law degree from the University of Virginia, and practiced estate planning and real estate law.

Cash on hand $1,755,783 and $9,243,736 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite

James Talarico (D)

Texas state representative since 2018, now representing House District 50, and a former public school teacher. He holds degrees from the University of Texas at Austin, Harvard (M.Ed.) and Austin Presbyterian Theological Seminary (M.A.), and helped pass a law capping insulin costs at $25 a month.

Cash on hand $21,548,155 and $68,560,930 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Ted Brown (L)

Libertarian Party of Texas nominee, chosen at the April 2026 state convention in Abilene, who has held leadership roles in the state party. A retired independent insurance adjuster with a political science degree from UCLA, he lives in Austin and campaigns on personal and economic freedom.

Cash on hand $1,151 and $7,460 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Jade Simmons (Ind)

Classical concert pianist, author and speaker running as an independent write-in candidate; she holds music degrees from Northwestern University and Rice University.

Cash on hand $956 and $9,324 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Avery Ayers (Wri)

Cash on hand $210 and $0 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through October 31, 2025.

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Bradford "Brad" Hall (Wri)

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Zul Mohamed (Wri)

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Talarico +2.6. Ken Paxton needs 215,191 net votes. Odds 30% today, 51% with the plan.

Questions

Can Ken Paxton win the U.S. Senate race in Texas in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Ken Paxton needs 265,529 net votes, and recent Texas results show about 444,607 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 63 percent of that.

Where are the votes Ken Paxton needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Harris County, Dallas County, Tarrant County, Bexar County, Travis County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Ken Paxton need to persuade?

About 80,653 voters who lean James Talarico today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 31 percent of the 257,221 persuadable voters leaning James Talarico.

When does early voting start in Texas in 2026?

In-person early voting in Texas runs October 19 through October 30, 2026. The voter registration deadline is October 5, and applications for a mail ballot must be received by October 23. Mail ballots count if received by 7 p.m. on Election Day, or by 5 p.m. the next day if postmarked by Election Day. Texas does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Texas Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Texas Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.