Upset Brief · VA-01 · Shannon Taylor (D) vs. Rob Wittman (R), incumbent

Taylor gets within 16,030 votes on campaign work alone. A 4.7-point national shift finishes it.

12%
odds today
25%
odds with the plan
28,321
net votes to find
37
days left, ballots already coming in
Where
  1. 01
    Matoaka (Williamsburg city)
    Starting line Taylor +42. 5.7% split their ticket. About 2,088 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +364
  2. 02
    Tucker (Henrico)
    Starting line Taylor +38. 3.9% split their ticket. About 1,210 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +192
  3. 03
    Yellow Tavern (Henrico)
    Starting line Taylor +30. 4.1% split their ticket. About 1,392 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +174
  4. 04
    Stryker (Williamsburg city)
    Starting line Taylor +38. 3.6% split their ticket. About 777 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +163
  5. 05
    Sadler (Henrico)
    Starting line Taylor +17. 8.7% split their ticket. About 1,040 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +153
  6. 06
    Otterdale (Chesterfield)
    Starting line Taylor +8. 6.8% split their ticket.
    +150

The top 12 precincts carry 16% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    9,875 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Wittman today.
    +9,875
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 28,260 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Taylor's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,014
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Taylor's way.
    +402

Plus a national shift of 4.7 points of margin (16,030 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Taylor wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Wittman.
  2. In Matoaka (Williamsburg city) and Tucker (Henrico), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 4.7 points toward Taylor's side between now and November 3.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    239 precincts, R² 0.979, 36 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -55,597 to 24,002 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Taylor $1,004,227 cash on hand; Wittman $4,292,789.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    33,921 households, 101,762 dials, about 5,332 live conversations: an estimated $10,919 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $10,919 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Virginia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Virginia Department of Elections precinct returns (2022, 2024 and 2025), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.