Virginia · U.S. House · District 1 · November 3, 2026

How Shannon Taylor wins.

Wittman starts 8.3 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work gets Taylor within 16,030 votes; a 4.7-point shift in the national mood finishes it. The most net votes are in Matoaka (Williamsburg city), Tucker (Henrico) and Yellow Tavern (Henrico).

28,321

net votes between Taylor and a win

days to election day. Early voting opened September 18.

8.3 pts

Wittman lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Virginia races ranked ›

Taylor gets within 16,030 votes on campaign work alone. A 4.7-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today12%

Odds with the plan25%

Net votes to find28,321

WhereMatoaka (Williamsburg city), Tucker (Henrico), Yellow Tavern (Henrico)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Wittman +1.1. Shannon Taylor needs 3,702 net votes. Odds 41% today, 50% with the plan.

The number

171,372 votes.

That is half of the 342,742 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Taylor stands today, and what is missing:

155,989 Shannon Taylor baseline

184,310 Rob Wittman baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022, 2024 and 2025 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

12% today. 25% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Taylor wins in

25%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

12%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Taylor short by 15,936.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

9,875

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 9,875

Who. 9,875 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Wittman today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Taylor needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Wittman.

Mobilize

2,014

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 28,260

Who. At least 28,260 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Taylor's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

402

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,149

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Taylor's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 12,291 net votes against a gap of 28,321. Still 16,030 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 4.7 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 16% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Matoaka (Williamsburg city)mobilize
Starting line Taylor +42. 5.7% split their ticket. About 2,088 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+364
02
Tucker (Henrico)mobilize
Starting line Taylor +38. 3.9% split their ticket. About 1,210 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+192
03
Yellow Tavern (Henrico)mobilize
Starting line Taylor +30. 4.1% split their ticket. About 1,392 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+174
04
Stryker (Williamsburg city)mobilize
Starting line Taylor +38. 3.6% split their ticket. About 777 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+163
05
Sadler (Henrico)persuade
Starting line Taylor +17. 8.7% split their ticket. About 1,040 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+153
06
Otterdale (Chesterfield)persuade
Starting line Taylor +8. 6.8% split their ticket.
+150
07
Lucks Lane (Chesterfield)persuade
Starting line Taylor +2. 7.1% split their ticket.
+150
08
Tuckahoe (Henrico)persuade
Starting line Wittman +2. 12.2% split their ticket.
+144
09
Stoney Run (Henrico)persuade
Starting line Taylor +12. 7.6% split their ticket. About 921 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+135
10
Springfield (Henrico)persuade
Starting line Taylor +16. 7.6% split their ticket. About 881 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+130
11
Nuckols Farm (Henrico)persuade
Starting line Taylor +8. 10.3% split their ticket.
+129
12
Coalpit (Henrico)persuade
Starting line Taylor +11. 7.3% split their ticket. About 1,111 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+129

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

The median district in America.

Sabato's Crystal Ball calls the 1st the median House district of 2026 by 2024 presidential vote, and the latest public poll, a Democratic internal from September, has it at one point. Few seats in the country are closer on paper.

Matoaka (Williamsburg city) carries the most.

Matoaka (Williamsburg city) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 364. It sits at Taylor +42 on our starting line, and 5.7 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Tucker (Henrico) is a turnout race.

Taylor's side leads Tucker (Henrico) by about 38 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,210 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 157 votes there.

Tuckahoe (Henrico) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Tuckahoe (Henrico) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 12.2 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Taylor's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 239
Slope: 0.985
R²: 0.979
Residual SD: 3.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 36

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Taylor's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Taylor, with Wittman, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 9,875 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 26
Bank the ballots
By September 24, 21,486 ballots had already been cast in the district (14,411 in person, 7,075 by mail), and 35,148 requested mail ballots were still outstanding, per the Department of Elections early voting file. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to 31
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 28,260 of them live where Taylor is favored. In-person early voting ends Saturday, October 31 at 5 p.m. Mail ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by noon on November 6.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Virginia allows same-day registration with a provisional ballot. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 12.8 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 4.9 points; Spanberger carried the 2025 governor's race by 2.5 points.

Taylor wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Wittman.
In Matoaka (Williamsburg city) and Tucker (Henrico), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 4.7 points toward Taylor's side between now and November 3.
Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The work

5,332 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 101,762 dials to 33,921 households, before the last ballot is cast.

34K

households on the target list

102K

dials across three attempts

5,332

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $10,919 at our published rates: 33,921 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Shannon Taylor (D)

Henrico County Commonwealth's Attorney since 2012, the first woman to hold the office; past president of the Virginia Association of Commonwealth's Attorneys who pioneered programs for trafficking victims and made Henrico a statewide leader in prosecuting sex traffickers; a Henrico resident for 30 years with degrees from UVA and the University of Richmond law school.

Cash on hand $1,004,227 and $2,140,980 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Rob Wittman (R)

U.S. representative for the 1st District since 2007 and vice chair of the House Armed Services Committee; former Montross mayor, Westmoreland County supervisor and delegate.

Cash on hand $4,292,789 and $4,053,142 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Wittman +1.1. Shannon Taylor needs 3,702 net votes. Odds 41% today, 50% with the plan.

Questions

Can Shannon Taylor win Virginia's 1st Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 12,291 net votes; the gap is 28,321. The rest would take a 4.7-point national shift.

Where are the votes Shannon Taylor needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Matoaka (Williamsburg city), Tucker (Henrico), Yellow Tavern (Henrico), Stryker (Williamsburg city), Sadler (Henrico). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022, 2024 and 2025 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Shannon Taylor need to persuade?

About 4,938 voters who lean Rob Wittman today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 9,875 persuadable voters leaning Rob Wittman.

When does early voting start in Virginia in 2026?

In-person early voting in Virginia runs from Friday, September 18 through Saturday, October 31, 2026, at 5 p.m., with no excuse needed. The deadline to request a mail ballot is October 23 at 5 p.m.; mail ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by noon on November 6. Same-day registration is allowed with a provisional ballot.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Virginia Department of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Virginia Department of Elections returns for 2022, 2024 and 2025, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.