Upset Brief · VA-10 · Dave Beckwith (R) vs. Suhas Subramanyam (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 5.5-point national wave.

11%
odds today
22%
odds with the plan
24,793
net votes to find
37
days left, ballots already coming in
Where
  1. 01
    Vint Hill (Fauquier)
    Starting line Beckwith +23. 5.1% split their ticket. About 1,282 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +147
  2. 02
    Waterloo (Fauquier)
    Starting line Beckwith +27. 3.8% split their ticket. About 935 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +125
  3. 03
    New Baltimore (Fauquier)
    Starting line Beckwith +23. 4.5% split their ticket. About 792 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +122
  4. 04
    Morrisville (Fauquier)
    Starting line Beckwith +36. 3.5% split their ticket. About 661 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +119
  5. 05
    Casanova (Fauquier)
    Starting line Beckwith +23. 3.5% split their ticket. About 986 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +116
  6. 06
    Gravely (Prince William)
    Starting line Beckwith +11. 5.3% split their ticket. About 1,510 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +108

The top 12 precincts carry 15% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    7,152 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Subramanyam today.
    +7,152
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 15,115 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Beckwith's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,098
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Beckwith's way.
    +382

Plus a national shift of 5.5 points of margin (16,160 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Beckwith wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Subramanyam.
  2. In Vint Hill (Fauquier) and Waterloo (Fauquier), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 5.5 points toward Beckwith's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    204 precincts, R² 0.966, 37 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -50,264 to 17,566 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Beckwith $54,260 cash on hand; Subramanyam $582,812.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    21,053 households, 63,159 dials, about 3,310 live conversations: an estimated $7,301 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,301 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Virginia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Virginia Department of Elections precinct returns (2022, 2024 and 2025), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.