Virginia · U.S. House · District 10 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Dave Beckwith.

Subramanyam starts 8.4 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 8,632 net votes toward Beckwith, a 2.9-point gain. Winning outright would take a 5.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Beckwith the one standing if one comes.

24,793

net votes between Beckwith and a win

days to election day. Early voting opened September 18.

8.4 pts

Subramanyam lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Virginia races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 5.5-point national wave.

Odds today11%

Odds with the plan22%

Net votes to find24,793

WhereVint Hill (Fauquier), Waterloo (Fauquier), New Baltimore (Fauquier)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Subramanyam +8.5. Dave Beckwith needs 25,175 net votes. Odds 11% today, 21% with the plan.

The number

147,572 votes.

That is half of the 295,143 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Beckwith stands today, and what is missing:

133,926 Dave Beckwith baseline

158,719 Suhas Subramanyam baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022, 2024 and 2025 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

11% today. 22% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Beckwith wins in

22%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

11%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Beckwith short by 16,230.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

7,152

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 7,152

Who. 7,152 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Subramanyam today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Beckwith needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Subramanyam.

Mobilize

1,098

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 15,115

Who. At least 15,115 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Beckwith's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

382

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,092

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Beckwith's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 8,632 net votes against a gap of 24,793. Still 16,161 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 5.5 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 15% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Vint Hill (Fauquier)mobilize
Starting line Beckwith +23. 5.1% split their ticket. About 1,282 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+147
02
Waterloo (Fauquier)mobilize
Starting line Beckwith +27. 3.8% split their ticket. About 935 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+125
03
New Baltimore (Fauquier)mobilize
Starting line Beckwith +23. 4.5% split their ticket. About 792 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+122
04
Morrisville (Fauquier)mobilize
Starting line Beckwith +36. 3.5% split their ticket. About 661 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+119
05
Casanova (Fauquier)mobilize
Starting line Beckwith +23. 3.5% split their ticket. About 986 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+116
06
Gravely (Prince William)mobilize
Starting line Beckwith +11. 5.3% split their ticket. About 1,510 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+108
07
Catlett (Fauquier)mobilize
Starting line Beckwith +43. 3.2% split their ticket. About 465 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+107
08
Nokesville (Prince William)persuade
Starting line Beckwith +11. 5.0% split their ticket. About 829 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+96
09
Botha (Fauquier)mobilize
Starting line Beckwith +30. 3.4% split their ticket. About 531 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+90
10
Brentsville (Prince William)persuade
Starting line Beckwith +28. 3.9% split their ticket. About 411 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+84
11
Purcellville (Loudoun)persuade
Starting line Subramanyam +6. 6.1% split their ticket.
+84
12
Broad Run (Fauquier)mobilize
Starting line Beckwith +23. 5.0% split their ticket. About 540 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+82

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Vint Hill (Fauquier) carries the most.

Vint Hill (Fauquier) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 147. It sits at Beckwith +23 on our starting line, and 5.1 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Waterloo (Fauquier) is a turnout race.

Beckwith's side leads Waterloo (Fauquier) by about 27 points on our starting line, and it cast about 935 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 87 votes there.

Purcellville (Loudoun) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Purcellville (Loudoun) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 6.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 15, 2026, Subramanyam had $583K in cash on hand to Beckwith's $54K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Beckwith's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 204
Slope: 1.020
R²: 0.966
Residual SD: 3.3 pts
Crossover precincts: 37

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Beckwith's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Beckwith, with Subramanyam, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 7,152 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 26
Bank the ballots
By September 24, 11,667 ballots had already been cast in the district (7,421 in person, 4,246 by mail), and 40,573 requested mail ballots were still outstanding, per the Department of Elections early voting file. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to 31
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 15,115 of them live where Beckwith is favored. In-person early voting ends Saturday, October 31 at 5 p.m. Mail ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by noon on November 6.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Virginia allows same-day registration with a provisional ballot. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 4.5 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 8.4 points; Spanberger carried the 2025 governor's race by 20.5 points.

Beckwith wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Subramanyam.
In Vint Hill (Fauquier) and Waterloo (Fauquier), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 5.5 points toward Beckwith's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

3,310 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 63,159 dials to 21,053 households, before the last ballot is cast.

21K

households on the target list

63K

dials across three attempts

3,310

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,301 at our published rates: 21,053 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Dave Beckwith (R)

Retired Air Force colonel after 30 years who went on to serve as a senior Pentagon acquisition official overseeing space, nuclear, missile defense and intelligence programs; Notre Dame aerospace engineer and Sterling resident since 2009.

Cash on hand $54,260 and $107,334 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Suhas Subramanyam (D)

U.S. representative for the 10th District since 2025; former White House technology policy adviser, delegate and state senator from Loudoun County.

Cash on hand $582,812 and $1,170,446 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Ahsen Malik (I)

Independent candidate and middle school teacher.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Subramanyam +8.5. Dave Beckwith needs 25,175 net votes. Odds 11% today, 21% with the plan.

Questions

Can Dave Beckwith win Virginia's 10th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 8,632 net votes; the gap is 24,793. The rest would take a 5.5-point national shift.

Where are the votes Dave Beckwith needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Vint Hill (Fauquier), Waterloo (Fauquier), New Baltimore (Fauquier), Morrisville (Fauquier), Casanova (Fauquier). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022, 2024 and 2025 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Dave Beckwith need to persuade?

About 3,576 voters who lean Suhas Subramanyam today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 7,152 persuadable voters leaning Suhas Subramanyam.

When does early voting start in Virginia in 2026?

In-person early voting in Virginia runs from Friday, September 18 through Saturday, October 31, 2026, at 5 p.m., with no excuse needed. The deadline to request a mail ballot is October 23 at 5 p.m.; mail ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by noon on November 6. Same-day registration is allowed with a provisional ballot.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Virginia Department of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Virginia Department of Elections returns for 2022, 2024 and 2025, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.