A long shot on the math: it takes a 33.6-point national wave.

1. 01
   Vienna #1 (Fairfax)

   Starting line Walkinshaw +40. 6.7% split their ticket.
   +96
2. 02
   Orange (Fairfax)

   Starting line Walkinshaw +34. 6.6% split their ticket.
   +90
3. 03
   Waples Mill (Fairfax)

   Starting line Walkinshaw +30. 6.2% split their ticket.
   +89
4. 04
   Wolftrap (Fairfax)

   Starting line Walkinshaw +37. 6.6% split their ticket.
   +85
5. 05
   Clearview (Fairfax)

   Starting line Walkinshaw +35. 5.9% split their ticket.
   +83
6. 06
   Fountainhead (Fairfax)

   Starting line Walkinshaw +17. 6.7% split their ticket.
   +83

The top 12 precincts carry 13% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  7,629 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Walkinshaw today.
  +7,629
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no precincts Purves's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Purves's way.
  +324

Plus a national shift of 33.6 points of margin (97,278 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Purves wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Walkinshaw.
2. The national environment moves about 33.6 points toward Purves's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  183 precincts, R² 0.914, 29 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -130,654 to -63,942 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through August 27

  Purves $200 cash on hand; Walkinshaw $979,176.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  11,166 households, 33,499 dials, about 1,755 live conversations: an estimated $4,982 at published rates.