Virginia · U.S. House · District 11 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Arthur Purves.

Walkinshaw starts 36.3 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 7,953 net votes toward Purves, a 2.7-point gain. Winning outright would take a 33.6-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Purves the one standing if one comes.

105,230

net votes between Purves and a win

days to election day. Early voting opened September 18.

36.3 pts

Walkinshaw lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Virginia races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 33.6-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find105,230

WhereVienna #1 (Fairfax), Orange (Fairfax), Waples Mill (Fairfax)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Walkinshaw +36.3. Arthur Purves needs 105,230 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

144,839 votes.

That is half of the 289,676 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Purves stands today, and what is missing:

90,764 Arthur Purves baseline

195,994 James Walkinshaw baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022, 2024 and 2025 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Purves wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Purves short by 96,905.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

7,629

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 7,629

Who. 7,629 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Walkinshaw today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Purves needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Walkinshaw.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 0

Who. There are almost no precincts Purves's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

324

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 925

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Purves's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 7,953 net votes against a gap of 105,230. Still 97,277 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 33.6 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 13% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Vienna #1 (Fairfax)persuade
Starting line Walkinshaw +40. 6.7% split their ticket.
+96
02
Orange (Fairfax)persuade
Starting line Walkinshaw +34. 6.6% split their ticket.
+90
03
Waples Mill (Fairfax)persuade
Starting line Walkinshaw +30. 6.2% split their ticket.
+89
04
Wolftrap (Fairfax)persuade
Starting line Walkinshaw +37. 6.6% split their ticket.
+85
05
Clearview (Fairfax)persuade
Starting line Walkinshaw +35. 5.9% split their ticket.
+83
06
Fountainhead (Fairfax)persuade
Starting line Walkinshaw +17. 6.7% split their ticket.
+83
07
Canterbury (Fairfax)persuade
Starting line Walkinshaw +39. 6.2% split their ticket.
+81
08
Burke Centre (Fairfax)persuade
Starting line Walkinshaw +39. 6.0% split their ticket.
+81
09
Fox Mill #1 (Fairfax)persuade
Starting line Walkinshaw +36. 5.5% split their ticket.
+80
10
Fairview (Fairfax)persuade
Starting line Walkinshaw +36. 6.0% split their ticket.
+80
11
Floris (Fairfax)persuade
Starting line Walkinshaw +35. 5.8% split their ticket.
+76
12
Franklin (Fairfax)persuade
Starting line Walkinshaw +37. 7.5% split their ticket.
+73

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Vienna #1 (Fairfax) carries the most.

Vienna #1 (Fairfax) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 96. It sits at Walkinshaw +40 on our starting line, and 6.7 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Franklin (Fairfax) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Franklin (Fairfax) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 7.5 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 7,953 net votes. The gap is 105,230. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.7 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Purves's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 183
Slope: 0.959
R²: 0.914
Residual SD: 3.0 pts
Crossover precincts: 29

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Purves's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Purves, with Walkinshaw, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 7,629 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 26
Bank the ballots
By September 24, 17,289 ballots had already been cast in the district (8,195 in person, 9,094 by mail), and 44,498 requested mail ballots were still outstanding, per the Department of Elections early voting file. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to 31
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 0 of them live where Purves is favored. In-person early voting ends Saturday, October 31 at 5 p.m. Mail ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by noon on November 6.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Virginia allows same-day registration with a provisional ballot. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 33.8 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 34.0 points; Spanberger carried the 2025 governor's race by 47.3 points.

Purves wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Walkinshaw.
The national environment moves about 33.6 points toward Purves's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

1,755 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 33,499 dials to 11,166 households, before the last ballot is cast.

11K

households on the target list

33K

dials across three attempts

1,755

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $4,982 at our published rates: 11,166 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Arthur Purves (R)

Vienna resident who has led the Fairfax County Taxpayers Alliance as president for 29 years after a 40-year career as a computer programmer; University of Pennsylvania BA, MS and MBA.

Cash on hand $200 and $10,780 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through August 27, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

James Walkinshaw (D)

U.S. representative for the 11th District since the September 2025 special election; former Fairfax County supervisor and chief of staff to Rep. Gerry Connolly.

Cash on hand $979,176 and $2,758,961 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Dianne Blais (G)

Green Party nominee.

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Walkinshaw +36.3. Arthur Purves needs 105,230 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Arthur Purves win Virginia's 11th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 7,953 net votes; the gap is 105,230. The rest would take a 33.6-point national shift.

Where are the votes Arthur Purves needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Vienna #1 (Fairfax), Orange (Fairfax), Waples Mill (Fairfax), Wolftrap (Fairfax), Clearview (Fairfax). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022, 2024 and 2025 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Arthur Purves need to persuade?

About 3,814 voters who lean James Walkinshaw today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 7,629 persuadable voters leaning James Walkinshaw.

When does early voting start in Virginia in 2026?

In-person early voting in Virginia runs from Friday, September 18 through Saturday, October 31, 2026, at 5 p.m., with no excuse needed. The deadline to request a mail ballot is October 23 at 5 p.m.; mail ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by noon on November 6. Same-day registration is allowed with a provisional ballot.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Virginia Department of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Virginia Department of Elections returns for 2022, 2024 and 2025, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.