Upset Brief · VA-02 · Elaine Luria (D) vs. Jen Kiggans (R), incumbent

Luria can win. The math closes using 58 percent of what history allows.

50%
odds today
62%
odds with the plan
5,935
net votes to find
37
days left, ballots already coming in
Where
  1. 01
    John F Kennedy (Suffolk city)
    Starting line Luria +60. 2.0% split their ticket. About 1,036 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +217
  2. 02
    Precinct 61 (Virginia Beach city)
    Starting line Luria +49. 2.3% split their ticket. About 932 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +161
  3. 03
    Precinct 93 (Virginia Beach city)
    Starting line Luria +47. 3.0% split their ticket. About 940 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +154
  4. 04
    Booker T Washington (Suffolk city)
    Starting line Luria +64. 2.4% split their ticket. About 630 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +142
  5. 05
    Kings Fork (Suffolk city)
    Starting line Luria +35. 2.1% split their ticket. About 1,154 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +139
  6. 06
    Hillpoint (Suffolk city)
    Starting line Luria +31. 1.9% split their ticket. About 1,098 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +119

The top 12 precincts carry 25% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    6,478 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Kiggans today.
    +3,758
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 39,364 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Luria's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,098
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Luria's way.
    +375
What has to be true
  1. Luria wins 29 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Kiggans.
  2. In John F Kennedy (Suffolk city) and Precinct 61 (Virginia Beach city), 20 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 58 percent of what recent Virginia results show is possible.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    230 precincts, R² 0.990, 29 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -28,032 to 41,049 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Luria $3,582,723 cash on hand; Kiggans $3,391,740.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    16,207 households, 48,621 dials, about 2,548 live conversations: an estimated $6,426 at published rates.
For the campaign

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For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Virginia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Virginia Department of Elections precinct returns (2022, 2024 and 2025), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.