Virginia · U.S. House · District 2 · November 3, 2026

How Elaine Luria wins.

A true toss-up between Luria and Kiggans: Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections all call it a toss-up, and no independent public poll sets a starting line. In a tied race, the plan aims for a 2-point cushion: 5,935 net votes, most of them in John F Kennedy (Suffolk city), Precinct 61 (Virginia Beach city) and Precinct 93 (Virginia Beach city).

5,935

net votes between Luria and a win

days to election day. Early voting opened September 18.

Tied

our starting line: a toss-up (the raters; no independent poll)

In short

One-page brief ›All Virginia races ranked ›

Luria can win. The math closes using 58 percent of what history allows.

Odds today50%

Odds with the plan62%

Net votes to find5,935

WhereJohn F Kennedy (Suffolk city), Precinct 61 (Virginia Beach city), Precinct 93 (Virginia Beach city)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Kiggans +0.0. Elaine Luria needs 5,940 net votes. Odds 35% today, 51% with the plan.

The number

148,378 votes.

That is half of the 296,755 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Luria stands today, and what is missing:

146,575 Elaine Luria baseline

146,575 Jen Kiggans baseline

Starting line: a tie (Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections all call it a toss-up, and no independent public poll sets a starting line), applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022, 2024 and 2025 official returns. In a tied race the plan aims for a 2-point cushion. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

50% today. 62% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Luria wins in

62%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

50%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves58%

The plan on this page sits at 58%. Median outcome at this setting: Luria by 6,281.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

3,758

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 6,478

Who. 6,478 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Kiggans today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Luria needs to win 29 percent of the ones now leaning Kiggans.

Mobilize

2,098

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 39,364

Who. At least 39,364 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Luria's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

375

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,848

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Luria's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 6,231 net votes against a gap of 5,935. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 25% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
John F Kennedy (Suffolk city)mobilize
Starting line Luria +60. 2.0% split their ticket. About 1,036 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+217
02
Precinct 61 (Virginia Beach city)mobilize
Starting line Luria +49. 2.3% split their ticket. About 932 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+161
03
Precinct 93 (Virginia Beach city)mobilize
Starting line Luria +47. 3.0% split their ticket. About 940 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+154
04
Booker T Washington (Suffolk city)mobilize
Starting line Luria +64. 2.4% split their ticket. About 630 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+142
05
Kings Fork (Suffolk city)mobilize
Starting line Luria +35. 2.1% split their ticket. About 1,154 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+139
06
Hillpoint (Suffolk city)mobilize
Starting line Luria +31. 1.9% split their ticket. About 1,098 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+119
07
Huntersville (Suffolk city)mobilize
Starting line Luria +49. 2.9% split their ticket. About 675 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+118
08
Precinct 11 (Virginia Beach city)persuade
Starting line Luria +6. 9.7% split their ticket.
+114
09
Precinct 21 (Virginia Beach city)mobilize
Starting line Luria +35. 2.3% split their ticket. About 908 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+112
10
Precinct 69 (Virginia Beach city)mobilize
Starting line Luria +35. 3.6% split their ticket. About 817 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+101
11
Precinct 76 (Virginia Beach city)mobilize
Starting line Luria +30. 2.7% split their ticket. About 970 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+99
12
Precinct 47 (Virginia Beach city)persuade
Starting line Kiggans +7. 8.2% split their ticket.
+97

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

John F Kennedy (Suffolk city) carries the most.

John F Kennedy (Suffolk city) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 217. It sits at Luria +60 on our starting line, and 2.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 61 (Virginia Beach city) is a turnout race.

Luria's side leads Precinct 61 (Virginia Beach city) by about 49 points on our starting line, and it cast about 932 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 156 votes there.

Precinct 11 (Virginia Beach city) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 11 (Virginia Beach city) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 9.7 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Luria has the cash edge.

As of July 15, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Luria had $3.58 million in cash on hand to Kiggans's $3.39 million. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Luria's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 230
Slope: 1.019
R²: 0.990
Residual SD: 2.6 pts
Crossover precincts: 29

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Luria's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Luria, with Kiggans, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,758 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 26
Bank the ballots
By September 24, 10,694 ballots had already been cast in the district (9,579 in person, 1,115 by mail), and 43,816 requested mail ballots were still outstanding, per the Department of Elections early voting file. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to 31
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 39,364 of them live where Luria is favored. In-person early voting ends Saturday, October 31 at 5 p.m. Mail ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by noon on November 6.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Virginia allows same-day registration with a provisional ballot. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 3.8 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 0.2 points; Spanberger carried the 2025 governor's race by 7.6 points.

Luria wins 29 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Kiggans.
In John F Kennedy (Suffolk city) and Precinct 61 (Virginia Beach city), 20 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 58 percent of what recent Virginia results show is possible.
Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The work

2,548 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 48,621 dials to 16,207 households, before the last ballot is cast.

16K

households on the target list

49K

dials across three attempts

2,548

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,426 at our published rates: 16,207 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Elaine Luria (D)

Retired Navy commander who spent 20 years as a surface nuclear officer, deployed six times and commanded Assault Craft Unit Two; represented the 2nd District from 2019 to 2023; Naval Academy graduate who lives in Norfolk.

Cash on hand $3,582,723 and $4,659,795 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite · incumbent

Jen Kiggans (R)

U.S. representative for the 2nd District since 2023; former Navy helicopter pilot and geriatric nurse practitioner; state senator from 2020 to 2022.

Cash on hand $3,391,740 and $5,954,338 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Geral "Bishop" Staten (I)

Independent candidate from Suffolk.

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Matt Baker (I)

Retired U.S. Marine Corps colonel with 28 years of service, running as an independent.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Kiggans +0.0. Elaine Luria needs 5,940 net votes. Odds 35% today, 51% with the plan.

Questions

Can Elaine Luria win Virginia's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Elaine Luria needs 5,935 net votes, and recent Virginia results show about 10,741 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 58 percent of that.

Where are the votes Elaine Luria needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: John F Kennedy (Suffolk city), Precinct 61 (Virginia Beach city), Precinct 93 (Virginia Beach city), Booker T Washington (Suffolk city), Kings Fork (Suffolk city). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022, 2024 and 2025 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Elaine Luria need to persuade?

About 1,879 voters who lean Jen Kiggans today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 29 percent of the 6,478 persuadable voters leaning Jen Kiggans.

When does early voting start in Virginia in 2026?

In-person early voting in Virginia runs from Friday, September 18 through Saturday, October 31, 2026, at 5 p.m., with no excuse needed. The deadline to request a mail ballot is October 23 at 5 p.m.; mail ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by noon on November 6. Same-day registration is allowed with a provisional ballot.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Virginia Department of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Virginia Department of Elections returns for 2022, 2024 and 2025, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.