A long shot on the math: it takes a 34.8-point national wave.

1. 01
   Bailey Creek (Chesapeake city)

   Starting line Rivera +14. 3.9% split their ticket. About 529 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
   +55
2. 02
   Asbury (Hampton city)

   Starting line Scott +8. 3.8% split their ticket.
   +53
3. 03
   Charles (Newport News city)

   Starting line Scott +15. 4.4% split their ticket.
   +52
4. 04
   Chrysler Museum (Norfolk city)

   Starting line Scott +48. 5.9% split their ticket.
   +52
5. 05
   Phillips (Hampton city)

   Starting line Scott +22. 4.1% split their ticket.
   +51
6. 06
   Taylor Elementary School (Norfolk city)

   Starting line Scott +58. 5.8% split their ticket.
   +50

The top 12 precincts carry 15% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  3,932 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Scott today.
  +3,932
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 529 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Rivera's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +25
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Rivera's way.
  +123

Plus a national shift of 34.8 points of margin (72,343 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Rivera wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Scott.
2. In Bailey Creek (Chesapeake city), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 34.8 points toward Rivera's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  189 precincts, R² 0.989, 22 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -96,540 to -48,351 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15

  Rivera $1,762 cash on hand; Scott $191,843.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  6,032 households, 18,096 dials, about 948 live conversations: an estimated $3,141 at published rates.