Virginia · U.S. House · District 3 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Edwin Rivera Jr..

Scott starts 36.8 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 4,080 net votes toward Rivera, a 2.0-point gain. Winning outright would take a 34.8-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Rivera the one standing if one comes.

76,422

net votes between Rivera and a win

days to election day. Early voting opened September 18.

36.8 pts

Scott lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Virginia races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 34.8-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find76,422

WhereBailey Creek (Chesapeake city), Asbury (Hampton city), Charles (Newport News city)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Scott +36.8. Edwin Rivera Jr. needs 76,422 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

103,926 votes.

That is half of the 207,850 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Rivera stands today, and what is missing:

65,166 Edwin Rivera Jr. baseline

141,588 Bobby Scott baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022, 2024 and 2025 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Rivera wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Rivera short by 72,372.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

3,932

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,932

Who. 3,932 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Scott today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Rivera needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Scott.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 529

Who. At least 529 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Rivera's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

123

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 350

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Rivera's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 4,080 net votes against a gap of 76,422. Still 72,342 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 34.8 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 15% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Bailey Creek (Chesapeake city)persuade
Starting line Rivera +14. 3.9% split their ticket. About 529 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+55
02
Asbury (Hampton city)persuade
Starting line Scott +8. 3.8% split their ticket.
+53
03
Charles (Newport News city)persuade
Starting line Scott +15. 4.4% split their ticket.
+52
04
Chrysler Museum (Norfolk city)persuade
Starting line Scott +48. 5.9% split their ticket.
+52
05
Phillips (Hampton city)persuade
Starting line Scott +22. 4.1% split their ticket.
+51
06
Taylor Elementary School (Norfolk city)persuade
Starting line Scott +58. 5.8% split their ticket.
+50
07
Willard (Norfolk city)persuade
Starting line Scott +34. 5.0% split their ticket.
+49
08
Knollwood Meadows (Newport News city)persuade
Starting line Scott +20. 3.9% split their ticket.
+48
09
East Ocean View (Norfolk city)persuade
Starting line Scott +23. 5.4% split their ticket.
+48
10
Deep Creek (Newport News city)persuade
Starting line Scott +4. 4.5% split their ticket.
+47
11
Larchmont Library (Norfolk city)persuade
Starting line Scott +35. 8.2% split their ticket.
+47
12
Kiln Creek (Newport News city)persuade
Starting line Scott +30. 4.0% split their ticket.
+46

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Bailey Creek (Chesapeake city) carries the most.

Bailey Creek (Chesapeake city) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 55. It sits at Rivera +14 on our starting line, and 3.9 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Bailey Creek (Chesapeake city) is also its turnout race.

Rivera's side leads Bailey Creek (Chesapeake city) by about 14 points on our starting line, and it cast about 529 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 25 votes there.

Larchmont Library (Norfolk city) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Larchmont Library (Norfolk city) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 8.2 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 15, 2026, Scott had $192K in cash on hand to Rivera's $1,762. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Rivera's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 189
Slope: 0.965
R²: 0.989
Residual SD: 2.9 pts
Crossover precincts: 22

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Rivera's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Rivera, with Scott, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,932 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 26
Bank the ballots
By September 24, 7,914 ballots had already been cast in the district (4,808 in person, 3,106 by mail), and 30,620 requested mail ballots were still outstanding, per the Department of Elections early voting file. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to 31
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 529 of them live where Rivera is favored. In-person early voting ends Saturday, October 31 at 5 p.m. Mail ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by noon on November 6.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Virginia allows same-day registration with a provisional ballot. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 40.1 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 34.5 points; Spanberger carried the 2025 governor's race by 43.9 points.

Rivera wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Scott.
In Bailey Creek (Chesapeake city), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 34.8 points toward Rivera's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

948 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 18,096 dials to 6,032 households, before the last ballot is cast.

6,032

households on the target list

18K

dials across three attempts

948

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $3,141 at our published rates: 6,032 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Edwin Rivera Jr. (R)

Raised by his grandparents in Puerto Rico, he served there as a police officer, then joined the U.S. Army and served several combat tours in the Middle East before retiring as a disabled veteran; running on veterans, public safety and Social Security.

Cash on hand $1,762 and $6,555 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Bobby Scott (D)

U.S. representative for the 3rd District since 1993 and dean of Virginia's congressional delegation; former delegate and state senator from Newport News.

Cash on hand $191,843 and $688,200 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Makiba Gaines (I)

Civil rights and appellate attorney running as an independent.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Steve Woll (I)

Navy veteran and scientist running as an independent.

Cash on hand $14,717 and $34,330 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Scott +36.8. Edwin Rivera Jr. needs 76,422 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Edwin Rivera Jr. win Virginia's 3rd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 4,080 net votes; the gap is 76,422. The rest would take a 34.8-point national shift.

Where are the votes Edwin Rivera Jr. needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Bailey Creek (Chesapeake city), Asbury (Hampton city), Charles (Newport News city), Chrysler Museum (Norfolk city), Phillips (Hampton city). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022, 2024 and 2025 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Edwin Rivera Jr. need to persuade?

About 1,966 voters who lean Bobby Scott today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,932 persuadable voters leaning Bobby Scott.

When does early voting start in Virginia in 2026?

In-person early voting in Virginia runs from Friday, September 18 through Saturday, October 31, 2026, at 5 p.m., with no excuse needed. The deadline to request a mail ballot is October 23 at 5 p.m.; mail ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by noon on November 6. Same-day registration is allowed with a provisional ballot.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Virginia Department of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Virginia Department of Elections returns for 2022, 2024 and 2025, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.