Upset Brief · VA-04 · Robert Murray Jr. (R) vs. Jennifer McClellan (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 30.8-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
81,659
net votes to find
37
days left, ballots already coming in
Where
  1. 01
    Templeton (Prince George)
    Starting line Murray +45. 2.4% split their ticket. About 918 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +171
  2. 02
    Fourth (Colonial Heights city)
    Starting line Murray +31. 4.9% split their ticket. About 1,077 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +145
  3. 03
    Fifth (Colonial Heights city)
    Starting line Murray +42. 4.3% split their ticket. About 729 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +138
  4. 04
    Bland (Prince George)
    Starting line Murray +21. 3.2% split their ticket. About 1,426 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +128
  5. 05
    Church Road (Dinwiddie)
    Starting line Murray +55. 1.8% split their ticket. About 477 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +102
  6. 06
    Sutherland (Dinwiddie)
    Starting line Murray +24. 3.6% split their ticket. About 905 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +100

The top 12 precincts carry 21% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    4,513 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McClellan today.
    +4,513
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 16,216 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Murray's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,524
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Murray's way.
    +128

Plus a national shift of 30.8 points of margin (75,494 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Murray wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McClellan.
  2. In Templeton (Prince George) and Fourth (Colonial Heights city), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 30.8 points toward Murray's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    264 precincts, R² 0.993, 19 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -104,252 to -47,028 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Murray no FEC totals reported; McClellan $197,426.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    17,669 households, 53,007 dials, about 2,778 live conversations: an estimated $6,568 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,568 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Virginia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Virginia Department of Elections precinct returns (2022, 2024 and 2025), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.