Virginia · U.S. House · District 4 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Robert Murray Jr..

McClellan starts 33.3 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 6,165 net votes toward Murray, a 2.5-point gain. Winning outright would take a 30.8-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Murray the one standing if one comes.

81,659

net votes between Murray and a win

days to election day. Early voting opened September 18.

33.3 pts

McClellan lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Virginia races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 30.8-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find81,659

WhereTempleton (Prince George), Fourth (Colonial Heights city), Fifth (Colonial Heights city)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: McClellan +33.3. Robert Murray Jr. needs 81,659 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

122,490 votes.

That is half of the 244,978 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Murray stands today, and what is missing:

81,030 Robert Murray Jr. baseline

162,689 Jennifer McClellan baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022, 2024 and 2025 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Murray wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Murray short by 75,611.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

4,513

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,513

Who. 4,513 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McClellan today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Murray needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning McClellan.

Mobilize

1,524

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 16,216

Who. At least 16,216 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Murray's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

128

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 366

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Murray's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 6,165 net votes against a gap of 81,659. Still 75,494 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 30.8 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 21% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Templeton (Prince George)mobilize
Starting line Murray +45. 2.4% split their ticket. About 918 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+171
02
Fourth (Colonial Heights city)mobilize
Starting line Murray +31. 4.9% split their ticket. About 1,077 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+145
03
Fifth (Colonial Heights city)mobilize
Starting line Murray +42. 4.3% split their ticket. About 729 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+138
04
Bland (Prince George)mobilize
Starting line Murray +21. 3.2% split their ticket. About 1,426 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+128
05
Church Road (Dinwiddie)mobilize
Starting line Murray +55. 1.8% split their ticket. About 477 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+102
06
Sutherland (Dinwiddie)mobilize
Starting line Murray +24. 3.6% split their ticket. About 905 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+100
07
One Hundred Four (Richmond city)persuade
Starting line McClellan +30. 13.3% split their ticket.
+94
08
One Hundred Six (Richmond city)persuade
Starting line McClellan +15. 13.3% split their ticket.
+93
09
Blackwater (Prince George)mobilize
Starting line Murray +28. 2.9% split their ticket. About 683 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+86
10
Longhouse (Chesterfield)mobilize
Starting line Murray +23. 3.2% split their ticket. About 786 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+79
11
Dinwiddie (Dinwiddie)mobilize
Starting line Murray +24. 2.9% split their ticket. About 756 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+77
12
Second (Colonial Heights city)mobilize
Starting line Murray +29. 4.5% split their ticket. About 536 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+77

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Templeton (Prince George) carries the most.

Templeton (Prince George) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 171. It sits at Murray +45 on our starting line, and 2.4 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Fourth (Colonial Heights city) is a turnout race.

Murray's side leads Fourth (Colonial Heights city) by about 31 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,077 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 115 votes there.

One Hundred Four (Richmond city) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, One Hundred Four (Richmond city) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 13.3 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 6,165 net votes. The gap is 81,659. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.5 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Murray's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 264
Slope: 0.984
R²: 0.993
Residual SD: 3.3 pts
Crossover precincts: 19

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Murray's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Murray, with McClellan, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,513 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 26
Bank the ballots
By September 24, 12,945 ballots had already been cast in the district (8,558 in person, 4,387 by mail), and 29,531 requested mail ballots were still outstanding, per the Department of Elections early voting file. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to 31
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 16,216 of them live where Murray is favored. In-person early voting ends Saturday, October 31 at 5 p.m. Mail ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by noon on November 6.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Virginia allows same-day registration with a provisional ballot. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 34.9 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 32.5 points; Spanberger carried the 2025 governor's race by 41.4 points.

Murray wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McClellan.
In Templeton (Prince George) and Fourth (Colonial Heights city), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 30.8 points toward Murray's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

2,778 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 53,007 dials to 17,669 households, before the last ballot is cast.

18K

households on the target list

53K

dials across three attempts

2,778

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,568 at our published rates: 17,669 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Robert Murray Jr. (R)

Downtown Richmond resident and retired technology entrepreneur and corporate executive, including as an IBM CIO Advisory Leader; William & Mary summa cum laude graduate with an Emory MBA; running on family law, fiscal reform and health care costs.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Jennifer McClellan (D)

U.S. representative for the 4th District since 2023, the first Black woman elected to Congress from Virginia; former delegate and state senator and a communications lawyer.

Cash on hand $197,426 and $1,135,225 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Joan Andrews Bell (I)

Independent candidate.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: McClellan +33.3. Robert Murray Jr. needs 81,659 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Robert Murray Jr. win Virginia's 4th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 6,165 net votes; the gap is 81,659. The rest would take a 30.8-point national shift.

Where are the votes Robert Murray Jr. needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Templeton (Prince George), Fourth (Colonial Heights city), Fifth (Colonial Heights city), Bland (Prince George), Church Road (Dinwiddie). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022, 2024 and 2025 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Robert Murray Jr. need to persuade?

About 2,256 voters who lean Jennifer McClellan today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,513 persuadable voters leaning Jennifer McClellan.

When does early voting start in Virginia in 2026?

In-person early voting in Virginia runs from Friday, September 18 through Saturday, October 31, 2026, at 5 p.m., with no excuse needed. The deadline to request a mail ballot is October 23 at 5 p.m.; mail ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by noon on November 6. Same-day registration is allowed with a provisional ballot.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Virginia Department of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Virginia Department of Elections returns for 2022, 2024 and 2025, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.