Upset Brief · VA-05 · Tom Perriello (D) vs. John McGuire (R), incumbent

Perriello can win. The plan uses 40 percent of what history allows.

26%
odds today
52%
odds with the plan
10,147
net votes to find
John McGuire won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Charlottesville High School (Charlottesville city)
    Starting line Perriello +76. 2.8% split their ticket. About 2,406 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +636
  2. 02
    University (Albemarle)
    Starting line Perriello +66. 7.0% split their ticket. About 1,349 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +388
  3. 03
    Buford (Charlottesville city)
    Starting line Perriello +86. 3.4% split their ticket. About 1,220 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +366
  4. 04
    Key Recreation (Charlottesville city)
    Starting line Perriello +83. 3.8% split their ticket. About 1,224 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +358
  5. 05
    Walker (Charlottesville city)
    Starting line Perriello +76. 4.1% split their ticket. About 811 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +309
  6. 06
    Jackson-Via (Charlottesville city)
    Starting line Perriello +80. 2.9% split their ticket. About 1,087 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +306

The top 12 precincts carry 34% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    19,792 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning McGuire, plus the 9 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +7,943
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 41,330 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Perriello's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,594
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Perriello's way.
    +118
What has to be true
  1. Perriello wins 20 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning McGuire.
  2. In Charlottesville High School (Charlottesville city) and Buford (Charlottesville city), 14 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 40 percent of what recent Virginia results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    328 precincts, R² 0.996, 39 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -25,850 to 26,496 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Perriello $1,511,291 cash on hand; McGuire $524,346.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    17,921 households, 53,763 dials, about 2,817 live conversations: an estimated $6,661 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,661 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Virginia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Virginia Department of Elections precinct returns (2022, 2024 and 2025), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.