Virginia · U.S. House · District 5 · November 3, 2026

How Tom Perriello wins.

McGuire starts 3.3 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Perriello needs 10,147 net votes, and the math closes using 40 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Charlottesville High School (Charlottesville city), University (Albemarle) and Buford (Charlottesville city).

10,147

net votes between Perriello and a win

days to election day. Early voting opened September 18.

3.3 pts

McGuire lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Virginia races ranked ›

Perriello can win. The math closes using 40 percent of what history allows.

Odds today26%

Odds with the plan52%

Net votes to find10,147

WhereCharlottesville High School (Charlottesville city), University (Albemarle), Buford (Charlottesville city)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: McGuire +3.3. Tom Perriello needs 10,157 net votes. Odds 26% today, 52% with the plan.

The number

153,896 votes.

That is half of the 307,790 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Perriello stands today, and what is missing:

148,001 Tom Perriello baseline

158,148 John McGuire baseline

Starting line: McGuire +3.3 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022, 2024 and 2025 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

26% today. 52% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Perriello wins in

52%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

26%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves40%

The plan on this page sits at 40%. Median outcome at this setting: Perriello by 537.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

7,943

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 19,792

Who. Ticket splitters and the 9 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 19,792 leaning McGuire today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Perriello needs to win 20 percent of the ones now leaning McGuire.

Mobilize

2,594

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 41,330

Who. At least 41,330 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Perriello's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

118

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 839

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Perriello's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 10,655 net votes against a gap of 10,147. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 34% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Charlottesville High School (Charlottesville city)mobilize
Starting line Perriello +76. 2.8% split their ticket. About 2,406 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+636
02
University (Albemarle)mobilize
Starting line Perriello +66. 7.0% split their ticket. About 1,349 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+388
03
Buford (Charlottesville city)mobilize
Starting line Perriello +86. 3.4% split their ticket. About 1,220 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+366
04
Key Recreation (Charlottesville city)mobilize
Starting line Perriello +83. 3.8% split their ticket. About 1,224 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+358
05
Walker (Charlottesville city)mobilize
Starting line Perriello +76. 4.1% split their ticket. About 811 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+309
06
Jackson-Via (Charlottesville city)mobilize
Starting line Perriello +80. 2.9% split their ticket. About 1,087 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+306
07
Venable (Charlottesville city)persuade
Starting line Perriello +78. 8.1% split their ticket.
+253
08
Ivy (Albemarle)persuade
Starting line Perriello +49. 6.1% split their ticket.
+225
09
Baker-Butler (Albemarle)persuade
Starting line Perriello +40. 4.2% split their ticket.
+210
10
Mechums River (Albemarle)persuade
Starting line Perriello +47. 5.8% split their ticket.
+190
11
Johnson (Charlottesville city)persuade
Starting line Perriello +82. 4.5% split their ticket.
+185
12
First Ward Second Precinct (Lynchburg city)persuade
Starting line even. 5.8% split their ticket.
+181

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

The ratings are moving.

On September 25, the Cook Political Report moved the 5th from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. The only public poll, Perriello's own, fielded July 29 to August 1, had him three points back with 9 percent undecided.

Charlottesville High School (Charlottesville city) carries the most.

Charlottesville High School (Charlottesville city) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 636. It sits at Perriello +76 on our starting line, and 2.8 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Buford (Charlottesville city) is a turnout race.

Perriello's side leads Buford (Charlottesville city) by about 86 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,220 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 364 votes there.

Venable (Charlottesville city) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Venable (Charlottesville city) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 8.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Perriello's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 328
Slope: 0.976
R²: 0.996
Residual SD: 2.3 pts
Crossover precincts: 39

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Perriello's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Perriello, with McGuire, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 7,943 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 26
Bank the ballots
By September 24, 16,512 ballots had already been cast in the district (14,512 in person, 2,000 by mail), and 30,549 requested mail ballots were still outstanding, per the Department of Elections early voting file. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to 31
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 41,330 of them live where Perriello is favored. In-person early voting ends Saturday, October 31 at 5 p.m. Mail ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by noon on November 6.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Virginia allows same-day registration with a provisional ballot. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 15.0 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 12.2 points; Earle-Sears carried the 2025 governor's race by 7.2 points.

Perriello wins 20 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning McGuire.
In Charlottesville High School (Charlottesville city) and Buford (Charlottesville city), 14 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 40 percent of what recent Virginia results show is possible.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

2,817 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 53,763 dials to 17,921 households, before the last ballot is cast.

18K

households on the target list

54K

dials across three attempts

2,817

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,661 at our published rates: 17,921 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Tom Perriello (D)

Charlottesville native and Yale-trained lawyer who represented the 5th District from 2009 to 2011, then served as U.S. Special Envoy for the African Great Lakes and Congo and later as U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan.

Cash on hand $1,511,291 and $2,140,402 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite · incumbent

John McGuire (R)

U.S. representative for the 5th District since 2025; former Navy SEAL who founded a fitness business; former delegate and state senator.

Cash on hand $524,346 and $1,781,840 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Cooke Harvey (I)

Independent candidate from Amherst.

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: McGuire +3.3. Tom Perriello needs 10,157 net votes. Odds 26% today, 52% with the plan.

Questions

Can Tom Perriello win Virginia's 5th Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Tom Perriello needs 10,147 net votes, and recent Virginia results show about 26,549 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 40 percent of that.

Where are the votes Tom Perriello needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Charlottesville High School (Charlottesville city), University (Albemarle), Buford (Charlottesville city), Key Recreation (Charlottesville city), Walker (Charlottesville city). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022, 2024 and 2025 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Tom Perriello need to persuade?

About 3,972 voters who lean John McGuire today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 20 percent of the 19,792 persuadable voters leaning John McGuire.

When does early voting start in Virginia in 2026?

In-person early voting in Virginia runs from Friday, September 18 through Saturday, October 31, 2026, at 5 p.m., with no excuse needed. The deadline to request a mail ballot is October 23 at 5 p.m.; mail ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by noon on November 6. Same-day registration is allowed with a provisional ballot.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Virginia Department of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Virginia Department of Elections returns for 2022, 2024 and 2025, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.