Upset Brief · VA-06 · Beth Macy (D) vs. Ben Cline (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 23.0-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
70,444
net votes to find
37
days left, ballots already coming in
Where
  1. 01
    Eureka Park (Roanoke city)
    Starting line Macy +60. 4.2% split their ticket. About 836 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +198
  2. 02
    Lincoln Terrace (Roanoke city)
    Starting line Macy +58. 4.4% split their ticket. About 906 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +192
  3. 03
    Forest Park (Roanoke city)
    Starting line Macy +52. 2.6% split their ticket. About 957 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +182
  4. 04
    Highland (Roanoke city)
    Starting line Macy +39. 4.3% split their ticket. About 1,147 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +177
  5. 05
    Peters Creek (Roanoke city)
    Starting line Macy +40. 2.7% split their ticket. About 1,127 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +168
  6. 06
    Ward No 5 (Staunton city)
    Starting line Macy +32. 4.2% split their ticket. About 1,029 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +149

The top 12 precincts carry 22% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    5,823 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Cline today.
    +5,823
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 22,299 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Macy's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,295
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Macy's way.
    +413

Plus a national shift of 23 points of margin (61,913 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Macy wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Cline.
  2. In Lincoln Terrace (Roanoke city) and Eureka Park (Roanoke city), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 23.0 points toward Macy's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    275 precincts, R² 0.994, 35 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -92,982 to -30,972 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Macy $847,470 cash on hand; Cline $711,442.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    24,237 households, 72,712 dials, about 3,810 live conversations: an estimated $8,405 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $8,405 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Virginia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Virginia Department of Elections precinct returns (2022, 2024 and 2025), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.