Virginia · U.S. House · District 6 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Beth Macy.

Cline starts 26.2 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 8,531 net votes toward Macy, a 3.2-point gain. Winning outright would take a 23.0-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Macy the one standing if one comes.

70,444
net votes between Macy and a win
37
days to election day. Early voting opened September 18.
26.2 pts
Cline lead, our starting line from recent results
In short

A long shot on the math: it takes a 23.0-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
Odds with the plan<1%
Net votes to find70,444
WhereEureka Park (Roanoke city), Lincoln Terrace (Roanoke city), Forest Park (Roanoke city)
Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Cline +26.2. Beth Macy needs 70,444 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.
The number

134,617 votes.

That is half of the 269,233 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Macy stands today, and what is missing:

97,886 Beth Macy baseline
168,330 Ben Cline baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022, 2024 and 2025 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

<1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Macy wins in
<1%
of 20,000 simulated elections
With no plan
<1%
tieMacy loses by 110,482loses by 12,063
How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%
The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Macy short by 61,875.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade
5,823
net votes in the plan, from a pool of 5,823

Who. 5,823 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Cline today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Macy needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Cline.

Mobilize
2,295
net votes in the plan, from a pool of 22,299

Who. At least 22,299 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Macy's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate
413
net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,180

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Macy's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 8,531 net votes against a gap of 70,444. Still 61,913 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 23 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 22% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Accomack CountyAlbemarle CountyAlexandria cityAlleghany County: 230 net votes in the planAmelia CountyAmherst CountyAppomattox CountyArlington CountyAugusta County: 542 net votes in the planBath County: 34 net votes in the planBedford County: 0 net votes in the planBland CountyBotetourt County: 342 net votes in the planBristol cityBrunswick CountyBuchanan CountyBuckingham CountyBuena Vista city: 50 net votes in the planCampbell CountyCaroline CountyCarroll CountyCharles City CountyCharlotte CountyCharlottesville cityChesapeake cityChesterfield CountyClarke County: 144 net votes in the planColonial Heights cityCovington city: 65 net votes in the planCraig CountyCulpeper CountyCumberland CountyDanville cityDickenson CountyDinwiddie CountyEmporia cityEssex CountyFairfax cityFairfax CountyFalls Church cityFauquier CountyFloyd CountyFluvanna CountyFranklin cityFranklin CountyFrederick County: 725 net votes in the planFredericksburg cityGalax cityGiles CountyGloucester CountyGoochland CountyGrayson CountyGreene CountyGreensville CountyHalifax CountyHampton cityHanover CountyHarrisonburg city: 942 net votes in the planHenrico CountyHenry CountyHighland County: 33 net votes in the planHopewell cityIsle of Wight CountyJames City CountyKing George CountyKing William CountyKing and Queen CountyLancaster CountyLee CountyLexington city: 144 net votes in the planLoudoun CountyLouisa CountyLunenburg CountyLynchburg cityMadison CountyManassas cityManassas Park cityMartinsville cityMathews CountyMecklenburg CountyMiddlesex CountyMontgomery CountyNelson CountyNew Kent CountyNewport News cityNorfolk cityNorthampton CountyNorthumberland CountyNorton cityNottoway CountyOrange CountyPage County: 217 net votes in the planPatrick CountyPetersburg cityPittsylvania CountyPoquoson cityPortsmouth cityPowhatan CountyPrince Edward CountyPrince George CountyPrince William CountyPulaski CountyRadford cityRappahannock CountyRichmond cityRichmond CountyRoanoke city: 1,987 net votes in the planRoanoke County: 502 net votes in the planRockbridge County: 205 net votes in the planRockingham County: 696 net votes in the planRussell CountySalem city: 224 net votes in the planScott CountyShenandoah County: 375 net votes in the planSmyth CountySouthampton CountySpotsylvania CountyStafford CountyStaunton city: 355 net votes in the planSuffolk citySurry CountySussex CountyTazewell CountyVirginia Beach cityWarren County: 270 net votes in the planWashington CountyWaynesboro city: 154 net votes in the planWestmoreland CountyWilliamsburg cityWinchester city: 297 net votes in the planWise CountyWythe CountyYork CountyAugustaFrederickHarrisonburg cityRoanoke cityRockingham
Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset
  1. 01
    Eureka Park (Roanoke city)mobilize
    Starting line Macy +60. 4.2% split their ticket. About 836 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +198
  2. 02
    Lincoln Terrace (Roanoke city)mobilize
    Starting line Macy +58. 4.4% split their ticket. About 906 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +192
  3. 03
    Forest Park (Roanoke city)mobilize
    Starting line Macy +52. 2.6% split their ticket. About 957 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +182
  4. 04
    Highland (Roanoke city)mobilize
    Starting line Macy +39. 4.3% split their ticket. About 1,147 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +177
  5. 05
    Peters Creek (Roanoke city)mobilize
    Starting line Macy +40. 2.7% split their ticket. About 1,127 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +168
  6. 06
    Ward No 5 (Staunton city)mobilize
    Starting line Macy +32. 4.2% split their ticket. About 1,029 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +149
  7. 07
    Lexington (Lexington city)mobilize
    Starting line Macy +27. 5.5% split their ticket. About 907 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +144
  8. 08
    Old Southwest-Wasena (Roanoke city)mobilize
    Starting line Macy +37. 3.6% split their ticket. About 802 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +135
  9. 09
    South East Central (Harrisonburg city)mobilize
    Starting line Macy +46. 6.2% split their ticket. About 798 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +135
  10. 10
    West (Harrisonburg city)mobilize
    Starting line Macy +31. 4.0% split their ticket. About 885 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +131
  11. 11
    Lee-Hi (Roanoke city)mobilize
    Starting line Macy +27. 5.5% split their ticket. About 786 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +130
  12. 12
    Northwest (Harrisonburg city)mobilize
    Starting line Macy +25. 4.4% split their ticket. About 984 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +128
What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Eureka Park (Roanoke city) carries the most.

Eureka Park (Roanoke city) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 198. It sits at Macy +60 on our starting line, and 4.2 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Lincoln Terrace (Roanoke city) is a turnout race.

Macy's side leads Lincoln Terrace (Roanoke city) by about 58 points on our starting line, and it cast about 906 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 178 votes there.

South East Central (Harrisonburg city) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, South East Central (Harrisonburg city) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 6.2 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Macy has the cash edge.

As of July 15, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Macy had $847K in cash on hand to Cline's $711K. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Macy's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

-80-80-60-60-40-40-20-2000+20+20+40+40+60+60+80+80Macy's side, President 2024 margin (points)U.S. House 2024 margin (points)
Precincts
275
Slope
0.975
R²
0.994
Residual SD
2.3 pts
Crossover precincts
35

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Macy's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Ballots are already coming in.

  1. Now to October 4
    Find them

    Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Macy, with Cline, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.

  2. October 5 to 16
    Persuade

    Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 5,823 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.

  3. October 17 to 26
    Bank the ballots

    By September 24, 13,879 ballots had already been cast in the district (12,429 in person, 1,450 by mail), and 23,968 requested mail ballots were still outstanding, per the Department of Elections early voting file. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.

  4. October 27 to 31
    Turn them out

    The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 22,299 of them live where Macy is favored. In-person early voting ends Saturday, October 31 at 5 p.m. Mail ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by noon on November 6.

  5. November 3
    Election day

    Polls are open 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Virginia allows same-day registration with a provisional ballot. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 28.3 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 23.8 points; Earle-Sears carried the 2025 governor's race by 16.7 points.

  1. Macy wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Cline.
  2. In Lincoln Terrace (Roanoke city) and Eureka Park (Roanoke city), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 23.0 points toward Macy's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The work

3,810 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 72,712 dials to 24,237 households, before the last ballot is cast.

24K
households on the target list
73K
dials across three attempts
3,810
live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $8,405 at our published rates: 24,237 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Beth Macy (D)

Roanoke author and journalist, a Roanoke Times reporter for 25 years, whose bestseller Dopesick became the Hulu series she co-wrote and executive produced; the first in her family to attend college; Nieman and Guggenheim fellow.

Cash on hand $847,470 and $1,686,322 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Favorite · incumbent

Ben Cline (R)

U.S. representative for the 6th District since 2019; grew up in Rockbridge County; former prosecutor and delegate from 2002 to 2018.

Cash on hand $711,442 and $1,441,436 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

  1. September 26, 2026
    Underdog plan published

    Starting line: Cline +26.2. Beth Macy needs 70,444 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

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Questions

Can Beth Macy win Virginia's 6th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 8,531 net votes; the gap is 70,444. The rest would take a 23.0-point national shift.

Where are the votes Beth Macy needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Eureka Park (Roanoke city), Lincoln Terrace (Roanoke city), Forest Park (Roanoke city), Highland (Roanoke city), Peters Creek (Roanoke city). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022, 2024 and 2025 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Beth Macy need to persuade?

About 2,912 voters who lean Ben Cline today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 5,823 persuadable voters leaning Ben Cline.

When does early voting start in Virginia in 2026?

In-person early voting in Virginia runs from Friday, September 18 through Saturday, October 31, 2026, at 5 p.m., with no excuse needed. The deadline to request a mail ballot is October 23 at 5 p.m.; mail ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by noon on November 6. Same-day registration is allowed with a provisional ballot.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Virginia Department of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Virginia Department of Elections returns for 2022, 2024 and 2025, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.

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