Upset Brief · VA-07 · Doug Ollivant (R) vs. Eugene Vindman (D), incumbent

Ollivant gets within 3,687 votes on campaign work alone. A 1.3-point national shift finishes it.

26%
odds today
43%
odds with the plan
12,528
net votes to find
37
days left, ballots already coming in
Where
  1. 01
    Monroe (King George)
    Starting line Ollivant +30. 3.9% split their ticket. About 1,439 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +202
  2. 02
    Shiloh (King George)
    Starting line Ollivant +28. 3.7% split their ticket. About 1,516 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +191
  3. 03
    Stanardsville (Greene)
    Starting line Ollivant +31. 3.7% split their ticket. About 1,075 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +152
  4. 04
    Brock Road Elementary (Spotsylvania)
    Starting line Ollivant +16. 5.1% split their ticket. About 1,274 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +138
  5. 05
    Brandy Station (Culpeper)
    Starting line Ollivant +27. 5.1% split their ticket. About 782 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +131
  6. 06
    Browns Store (Culpeper)
    Starting line Ollivant +25. 4.6% split their ticket. About 894 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +130

The top 12 precincts carry 19% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    5,866 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Vindman today.
    +5,866
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 31,608 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ollivant's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,706
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ollivant's way.
    +269

Plus a national shift of 1.3 points of margin (3,687 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Ollivant wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Vindman.
  2. In Monroe (King George) and Shiloh (King George), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 1.3 points toward Ollivant's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    203 precincts, R² 0.992, 30 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -35,305 to 28,431 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Ollivant $65,801 cash on hand; Vindman $6,573,093.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    30,435 households, 91,304 dials, about 4,784 live conversations: an estimated $9,797 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $9,797 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Virginia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Virginia Department of Elections precinct returns (2022, 2024 and 2025), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.