Virginia · U.S. House · District 7 · November 3, 2026

How Doug Ollivant wins.

Vindman starts 4.6 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work gets Ollivant within 3,687 votes; a 1.3-point shift in the national mood finishes it. The most net votes are in Monroe (King George), Shiloh (King George) and Stanardsville (Greene).

12,528

net votes between Ollivant and a win

days to election day. Early voting opened September 18.

4.6 pts

Vindman lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Virginia races ranked ›

Ollivant gets within 3,687 votes on campaign work alone. A 1.3-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today26%

Odds with the plan43%

Net votes to find12,528

WhereMonroe (King George), Shiloh (King George), Stanardsville (Greene)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Vindman +4.6. Doug Ollivant needs 12,528 net votes. Odds 26% today, 43% with the plan.

The number

137,296 votes.

That is half of the 274,590 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Ollivant stands today, and what is missing:

130,148 Doug Ollivant baseline

142,676 Eugene Vindman baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022, 2024 and 2025 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

26% today. 43% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Ollivant wins in

43%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

26%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Ollivant short by 3,405.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

5,866

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 5,866

Who. 5,866 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Vindman today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Ollivant needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Vindman.

Mobilize

2,706

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 31,608

Who. At least 31,608 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ollivant's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

269

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 768

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ollivant's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 8,841 net votes against a gap of 12,528. Still 3,687 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 1.3 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 19% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Monroe (King George)mobilize
Starting line Ollivant +30. 3.9% split their ticket. About 1,439 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+202
02
Shiloh (King George)mobilize
Starting line Ollivant +28. 3.7% split their ticket. About 1,516 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+191
03
Stanardsville (Greene)mobilize
Starting line Ollivant +31. 3.7% split their ticket. About 1,075 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+152
04
Brock Road Elementary (Spotsylvania)persuade
Starting line Ollivant +16. 5.1% split their ticket. About 1,274 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+138
05
Brandy Station (Culpeper)mobilize
Starting line Ollivant +27. 5.1% split their ticket. About 782 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+131
06
Browns Store (Culpeper)mobilize
Starting line Ollivant +25. 4.6% split their ticket. About 894 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+130
07
Hartwood (Stafford)mobilize
Starting line Ollivant +21. 4.0% split their ticket. About 939 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+127
08
Two East (Orange)mobilize
Starting line Ollivant +45. 2.9% split their ticket. About 588 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+122
09
Pearl Sample (Culpeper)mobilize
Starting line Ollivant +22. 5.1% split their ticket. About 1,039 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+121
10
Jeffersonton (Culpeper)mobilize
Starting line Ollivant +28. 4.2% split their ticket. About 705 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+114
11
Berkeley (Spotsylvania)mobilize
Starting line Ollivant +35. 4.0% split their ticket. About 599 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+114
12
Fire Rescue 7 (Spotsylvania)persuade
Starting line Ollivant +18. 4.3% split their ticket. About 758 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+110

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Monroe (King George) carries the most.

Monroe (King George) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 202. It sits at Ollivant +30 on our starting line, and 3.9 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Shiloh (King George) is a turnout race.

Ollivant's side leads Shiloh (King George) by about 28 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,516 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 143 votes there.

Brock Road Elementary (Spotsylvania) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Brock Road Elementary (Spotsylvania) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 5.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 15, 2026, Vindman had $6.57 million in cash on hand to Ollivant's $66K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Ollivant's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 203
Slope: 1.007
R²: 0.992
Residual SD: 2.4 pts
Crossover precincts: 30

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Ollivant's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Ollivant, with Vindman, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 5,866 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 26
Bank the ballots
By September 24, 13,101 ballots had already been cast in the district (8,621 in person, 4,480 by mail), and 34,891 requested mail ballots were still outstanding, per the Department of Elections early voting file. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to 31
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 31,608 of them live where Ollivant is favored. In-person early voting ends Saturday, October 31 at 5 p.m. Mail ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by noon on November 6.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Virginia allows same-day registration with a provisional ballot. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 2.6 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 2.7 points; Spanberger carried the 2025 governor's race by 15.3 points.

Ollivant wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Vindman.
In Monroe (King George) and Shiloh (King George), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 1.3 points toward Ollivant's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

4,784 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 91,304 dials to 30,435 households, before the last ballot is cast.

30K

households on the target list

91K

dials across three attempts

4,784

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $9,797 at our published rates: 30,435 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Doug Ollivant (R)

West Point graduate and retired Army lieutenant colonel with two combat tours in Iraq who served as National Security Council Director for Iraq under Presidents Bush and Obama; runs an anti-corruption consulting firm and lives in Culpeper County.

Cash on hand $65,801 and $251,134 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Eugene Vindman (D)

U.S. representative for the 7th District since 2025; retired Army lieutenant colonel with 25 years as a paratrooper, infantry officer and JAG attorney; former deputy legal adviser on the National Security Council.

Cash on hand $6,573,093 and $12,355,664 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Taner Demirci Lopez (L)

Libertarian nominee from Locust Grove; former university instructor and cultural adviser supporting the Department of Defense.

Campaign site ›

Also on the ballot

Alaha Ahrar (I)

Independent candidate from Dumfries and CEO of the nonprofit International Kindness Sharing.

Cash on hand $115 and $115 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Joshua Ertle (I)

Independent candidate.

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Randall Terry (I)

Independent candidate.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Vindman +4.6. Doug Ollivant needs 12,528 net votes. Odds 26% today, 43% with the plan.

Questions

Can Doug Ollivant win Virginia's 7th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 8,841 net votes; the gap is 12,528. The rest would take a 1.3-point national shift.

Where are the votes Doug Ollivant needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Monroe (King George), Shiloh (King George), Stanardsville (Greene), Brock Road Elementary (Spotsylvania), Brandy Station (Culpeper). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022, 2024 and 2025 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Doug Ollivant need to persuade?

About 2,933 voters who lean Eugene Vindman today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 5,866 persuadable voters leaning Eugene Vindman.

When does early voting start in Virginia in 2026?

In-person early voting in Virginia runs from Friday, September 18 through Saturday, October 31, 2026, at 5 p.m., with no excuse needed. The deadline to request a mail ballot is October 23 at 5 p.m.; mail ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by noon on November 6. Same-day registration is allowed with a provisional ballot.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Virginia Department of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Virginia Department of Elections returns for 2022, 2024 and 2025, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.