Upset Brief · VA-09 · Joy Powers (D) vs. Morgan Griffith (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 40.4-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
109,346
net votes to find
37
days left, ballots already coming in
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct G-1 (Montgomery)
    Starting line Powers +39. 4.0% split their ticket. About 1,187 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +179
  2. 02
    Precinct F-2 (Montgomery)
    Starting line Powers +39. 5.0% split their ticket. About 862 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +151
  3. 03
    Precinct A-2 (Montgomery)
    Starting line Powers +39. 5.8% split their ticket. About 749 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +133
  4. 04
    Precinct A-4 (Montgomery)
    Starting line Powers +38. 5.4% split their ticket. About 728 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +129
  5. 05
    Precinct G-2 (Montgomery)
    Starting line Powers +34. 5.3% split their ticket. About 898 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +129
  6. 06
    Precinct F-1 (Montgomery)
    Starting line Powers +33. 4.0% split their ticket. About 815 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +122

The top 12 precincts carry 16% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    7,047 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Griffith today.
    +7,047
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 12,541 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Powers's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,225
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Powers's way.
    +111

Plus a national shift of 40.4 points of margin (100,964 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Powers wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Griffith.
  2. In Precinct G-1 (Montgomery) and Precinct F-2 (Montgomery), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 40.4 points toward Powers's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    395 precincts, R² 0.988, 36 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -129,796 to -71,810 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Powers $13,941 cash on hand; Griffith $973,867.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    18,596 households, 55,789 dials, about 2,923 live conversations: an estimated $6,912 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,912 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Virginia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Virginia Department of Elections precinct returns (2022, 2024 and 2025), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.