Virginia · U.S. House · District 9 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Joy Powers.

Griffith starts 43.8 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 8,383 net votes toward Powers, a 3.4-point gain. Winning outright would take a 40.4-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Powers the one standing if one comes.

109,346

net votes between Powers and a win

days to election day. Early voting opened September 18.

43.8 pts

Griffith lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Virginia races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 40.4-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find109,346

WherePrecinct G-1 (Montgomery), Precinct F-2 (Montgomery), Precinct A-2 (Montgomery)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Griffith +44.1. Joy Powers needs 109,779 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

124,928 votes.

That is half of the 249,855 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Powers stands today, and what is missing:

69,767 Joy Powers baseline

179,113 Morgan Griffith baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022, 2024 and 2025 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Powers wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Powers short by 100,725.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

7,047

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 7,047

Who. 7,047 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Griffith today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Powers needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Griffith.

Mobilize

1,225

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 12,541

Who. At least 12,541 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Powers's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

111

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 316

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Powers's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 8,383 net votes against a gap of 109,346. Still 100,963 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 40.4 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 16% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct G-1 (Montgomery)mobilize
Starting line Powers +39. 4.0% split their ticket. About 1,187 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+179
02
Precinct F-2 (Montgomery)mobilize
Starting line Powers +39. 5.0% split their ticket. About 862 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+151
03
Precinct A-2 (Montgomery)mobilize
Starting line Powers +39. 5.8% split their ticket. About 749 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+133
04
Precinct A-4 (Montgomery)mobilize
Starting line Powers +38. 5.4% split their ticket. About 728 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+129
05
Precinct G-2 (Montgomery)mobilize
Starting line Powers +34. 5.3% split their ticket. About 898 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+129
06
Precinct F-1 (Montgomery)mobilize
Starting line Powers +33. 4.0% split their ticket. About 815 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+122
07
Richlands (Tazewell)persuade
Starting line Griffith +67. 11.5% split their ticket.
+120
08
Precinct E-3 (Montgomery)mobilize
Starting line Powers +49. 3.8% split their ticket. About 515 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+103
09
Precinct G-3 (Montgomery)mobilize
Starting line Powers +33. 4.2% split their ticket. About 627 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+96
10
Jeffersonville (Tazewell)persuade
Starting line Griffith +58. 12.5% split their ticket.
+77
11
Graham (Tazewell)persuade
Starting line Griffith +62. 9.2% split their ticket.
+73
12
Precinct #4 (Martinsville city)mobilize
Starting line Powers +27. 3.4% split their ticket. About 524 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+62

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct G-1 (Montgomery) carries the most.

Precinct G-1 (Montgomery) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 179. It sits at Powers +39 on our starting line, and 4.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct F-2 (Montgomery) is a turnout race.

Powers's side leads Precinct F-2 (Montgomery) by about 39 points on our starting line, and it cast about 862 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 115 votes there.

Jeffersonville (Tazewell) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Jeffersonville (Tazewell) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 12.5 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 15, 2026, Griffith had $974K in cash on hand to Powers's $14K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Powers's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 395
Slope: 0.921
R²: 0.988
Residual SD: 3.1 pts
Crossover precincts: 36

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Powers's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Powers, with Griffith, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 7,047 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 26
Bank the ballots
By September 24, 10,253 ballots had already been cast in the district (8,762 in person, 1,491 by mail), and 20,862 requested mail ballots were still outstanding, per the Department of Elections early voting file. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to 31
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 12,541 of them live where Powers is favored. In-person early voting ends Saturday, October 31 at 5 p.m. Mail ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by noon on November 6.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Virginia allows same-day registration with a provisional ballot. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 45.2 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 43.9 points; Earle-Sears carried the 2025 governor's race by 36.4 points.

Powers wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Griffith.
In Precinct G-1 (Montgomery) and Precinct F-2 (Montgomery), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 40.4 points toward Powers's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

2,923 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 55,789 dials to 18,596 households, before the last ballot is cast.

19K

households on the target list

56K

dials across three attempts

2,923

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,912 at our published rates: 18,596 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Joy Powers (D)

Fourth-generation cattle farmer on her family's 350-acre Bedford County farm who helped run the family farm equipment dealership; superintendent of the Bedford County Fair and founder of the agricultural education nonprofit Restore the Harvest.

Cash on hand $13,941 and $85,335 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Morgan Griffith (R)

U.S. representative for the 9th District since 2011; Salem lawyer and former House of Delegates majority leader; serves on the Energy and Commerce Committee.

Cash on hand $973,867 and $1,828,839 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Griffith +44.1. Joy Powers needs 109,779 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Joy Powers win Virginia's 9th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 8,383 net votes; the gap is 109,346. The rest would take a 40.4-point national shift.

Where are the votes Joy Powers needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct G-1 (Montgomery), Precinct F-2 (Montgomery), Precinct A-2 (Montgomery), Precinct A-4 (Montgomery), Precinct G-2 (Montgomery). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022, 2024 and 2025 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Joy Powers need to persuade?

About 3,524 voters who lean Morgan Griffith today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 7,047 persuadable voters leaning Morgan Griffith.

When does early voting start in Virginia in 2026?

In-person early voting in Virginia runs from Friday, September 18 through Saturday, October 31, 2026, at 5 p.m., with no excuse needed. The deadline to request a mail ballot is October 23 at 5 p.m.; mail ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by noon on November 6. Same-day registration is allowed with a provisional ballot.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Virginia Department of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Virginia Department of Elections returns for 2022, 2024 and 2025, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.