Upset Brief · Virginia U.S. Senate · Bert Mizusawa (R) vs. Mark Warner (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.8-point national wave.

0%
odds today
1%
odds with the plan
769,760
net votes to find
Mark Warner won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Fairfax County
    Starting line Warner +56. 39,217 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 187,043 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +39,692
  2. 02
    Loudoun County
    Starting line Warner +37. 15,419 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 69,654 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +15,674
  3. 03
    Virginia Beach city
    Starting line Warner +21. 15,398 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 68,037 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +15,565
  4. 04
    Prince William County
    Starting line Warner +41. 14,068 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 77,801 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +14,289
  5. 05
    Chesterfield County
    Starting line Warner +29. 13,212 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 71,738 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +13,569
  6. 06
    Henrico County
    Starting line Warner +46. 12,381 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 57,626 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +12,507

The top 12 localities carry 47% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    283,973 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Warner, plus the 14 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +283,973
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 309,704 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Mizusawa's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +32,663
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the localities that lean Mizusawa's way.
    +3,117

Plus a national shift of 14.8 points of margin (450,008 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Mizusawa wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Warner.
  2. In the precincts Mizusawa's side carries in Hanover County and Chesterfield County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 14.8 points toward Mizusawa's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    2,686 precincts, R² 0.989, 524 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -739,598 to -147,643 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Mizusawa $52,964 cash on hand; Warner $16,114,725.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    611,723 households, 1,835,169 dials, about 96,163 live conversations: an estimated $168,163 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $168,163 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Virginia races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Virginia Department of Elections precinct returns (2022, 2024 and 2025), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.