Virginia · U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Bert Mizusawa.

Warner starts 25.3 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Campaign work can move about 319,753 net votes toward Mizusawa, a 10.5-point gain. Winning outright would take a 14.8-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Mizusawa the one standing if one comes.

769,760

net votes between Mizusawa and a win

days to election day. Early voting opened September 18.

25.3 pts

Warner lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Virginia races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.8-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan1%

Net votes to find769,760

WhereFairfax County, Loudoun County, Virginia Beach city

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Warner +25.6. Bert Mizusawa needs 779,111 net votes. Odds 0% today, 1% with the plan.

The number

1,523,802 votes.

That is half of the 3,047,603 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Mizusawa stands today, and what is missing:

1,124,949 Bert Mizusawa baseline

1,894,709 Mark Warner baseline

Starting line: Warner +25.3 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each locality's pattern in the 2022, 2024 and 2025 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Mizusawa wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Mizusawa short by 454,983.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

284K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 283,973

Who. Ticket splitters and the 14 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 283,973 leaning Warner today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Mizusawa needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Warner.

Mobilize

33K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 309,704

Who. At least 309,704 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in localities where Mizusawa's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

3,117

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 8,905

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the localities that lean Mizusawa's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 319,753 net votes against a gap of 769,760. Still 450,007 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 14.8 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 localities carry 47% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Fairfax Countypersuade
Starting line Warner +56. 39,217 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 187,043 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+39,692
02
Loudoun Countypersuade
Starting line Warner +37. 15,419 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 69,654 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+15,674
03
Virginia Beach citypersuade
Starting line Warner +21. 15,398 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 68,037 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+15,565
04
Prince William Countypersuade
Starting line Warner +41. 14,068 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 77,801 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+14,289
05
Chesterfield Countypersuade
Starting line Warner +29. 13,212 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 71,738 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+13,569
06
Henrico Countypersuade
Starting line Warner +46. 12,381 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 57,626 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+12,507
07
Arlington Countypersuade
Starting line Warner +77. 9,124 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 39,379 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+9,171
08
Chesapeake citypersuade
Starting line Warner +21. 7,822 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 40,236 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+8,100
09
Richmond citypersuade
Starting line Warner +83. 6,471 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 40,693 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+6,494
10
Hanover Countypersuade
Starting line Mizusawa +9. 4,999 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 21,913 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+5,718
11
Stafford Countypersuade
Starting line Warner +20. 5,293 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 26,287 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+5,450
12
Alexandria citypersuade
Starting line Warner +76. 5,311 persuadable voters leaning Warner; 27,368 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+5,342

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Fairfax County holds the biggest share of the plan.

Fairfax County gives this plan more net votes than any other locality: 39,692. It sits at Warner +56 on our starting line.

Hanover County is a turnout race.

In the precincts Mizusawa's side carries in Hanover County, bringing back people who voted in 2024 and skipped the 2022 midterm nets 654 votes in this plan.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 15, 2026, Warner had $16.11 million in cash on hand to Mizusawa's $53K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 319,753 net votes. The gap is 769,760. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 10.5 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Mizusawa's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 2,686
Slope: 0.934
R²: 0.989
Residual SD: 3.9 pts
Crossover precincts: 524

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Mizusawa's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these localities. Every conversation tags the voter: with Mizusawa, with Warner, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 16
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 283,973 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 17 to 26
Bank the ballots
By September 24, 147,630 Virginians had already voted (104,525 in person, 43,105 by mail), per the Department of Elections early voting file. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 27 to 31
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 309,704 of them live where Mizusawa is favored. In-person early voting ends Saturday, October 31 at 5 p.m. Mail ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by noon on November 6.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Virginia allows same-day registration with a provisional ballot. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results statewide: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 5.8 points; Kaine carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 8.9 points; Spanberger carried the 2025 governor's race by 15.4 points.

Mizusawa wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Warner.
In the precincts Mizusawa's side carries in Hanover County and Chesterfield County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 14.8 points toward Mizusawa's side between now and November 3.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

96,163 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 1,835,169 dials to 611,723 households, before the last ballot is cast.

612K

households on the target list

1,835K

dials across three attempts

96K

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $168,163 at our published rates: 611,723 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Bert Mizusawa (R)

Retired U.S. Army major general (1979 to 2015) and Silver Star recipient who commanded the Joint Security Force at Panmunjom and a joint interagency task force in Afghanistan; West Point graduate with a Harvard law degree and public policy master's; grew up in a military family and graduated from high school in Hampton.

Cash on hand $52,964 and $376,213 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite · incumbent

Mark Warner (D)

U.S. senator since 2009 and Virginia's governor from 2002 to 2006; vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee; an early tech investor who co-founded Capital Cellular before public office.

Cash on hand $16,114,725 and $17,889,335 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Warner +25.6. Bert Mizusawa needs 779,111 net votes. Odds 0% today, 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can Bert Mizusawa win the U.S. Senate race in Virginia in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 319,753 net votes; the gap is 769,760. The rest would take a 14.8-point national shift.

Where are the votes Bert Mizusawa needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Fairfax County, Loudoun County, Virginia Beach city, Prince William County, Chesterfield County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022, 2024 and 2025 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Bert Mizusawa need to persuade?

About 141,986 voters who lean Mark Warner today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 283,973 persuadable voters leaning Mark Warner.

When does early voting start in Virginia in 2026?

In-person early voting in Virginia runs from Friday, September 18 through Saturday, October 31, 2026, at 5 p.m., with no excuse needed. The deadline to request a mail ballot is October 23 at 5 p.m.; mail ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by noon on November 6. Same-day registration is allowed with a provisional ballot.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Virginia Department of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Virginia Department of Elections returns for 2022, 2024 and 2025, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.