Upset Brief · WA-02 · Edwin H. Feller (R) vs. Rick Larsen (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.8-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
79,485
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 16
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 604 (Whatcom County)
    Starting line Feller +42. 4.0% split their ticket. About 352 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +66
  2. 02
    Precinct 609 (Whatcom County)
    Starting line Feller +47. 7.5% split their ticket. About 133 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +52
  3. 03
    Precinct 127 (Whatcom County)
    Starting line Feller +57. 3.5% split their ticket. About 155 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +48
  4. 04
    Precinct 603 (Whatcom County)
    Starting line Feller +41. 5.0% split their ticket. About 212 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +47
  5. 05
    Precinct 611 (Whatcom County)
    Starting line Feller +39. 5.3% split their ticket. About 169 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +44
  6. 06
    McRae (Skagit County)
    Starting line Feller +29. 3.8% split their ticket. About 234 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +42

The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    7,217 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Larsen today.
    +7,217
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 11,534 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Feller's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,045
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Feller's way.
    +421

Plus a national shift of 20.8 points of margin (70,802 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Feller wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Larsen.
  2. In Precinct 604 (Whatcom County) and Precinct 127 (Whatcom County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 20.8 points toward Feller's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    708 precincts, R² 0.993, 109 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -109,964 to -31,246 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Feller no FEC totals reported; Larsen $652,100.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    18,749 households, 56,246 dials, about 2,947 live conversations: an estimated $6,969 at published rates.
For the campaign

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For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Washington races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Washington Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.