What it would take for Edwin H. Feller.
Larsen starts 23.3 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 8,683 net votes toward Feller, a 2.5-point gain. Winning outright would take a 20.8-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Feller the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.8-point national wave.
170,563 votes.
That is half of the 341,125 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Feller stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, U.S. Senate in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
<1% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 7,217 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Larsen today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Feller needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Larsen.
Who. At least 11,534 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Feller's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Feller's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 8,683 net votes against a gap of 79,485. Still 70,802 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 20.8 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 6% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+66Precinct 604 (Whatcom County)mobilizeStarting line Feller +42. 4.0% split their ticket. About 352 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+52Precinct 609 (Whatcom County)persuadeStarting line Feller +47. 7.5% split their ticket. About 133 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+48Precinct 127 (Whatcom County)mobilizeStarting line Feller +57. 3.5% split their ticket. About 155 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 04+47Precinct 603 (Whatcom County)mobilizeStarting line Feller +41. 5.0% split their ticket. About 212 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+44Precinct 611 (Whatcom County)mobilizeStarting line Feller +39. 5.3% split their ticket. About 169 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 06+42McRae (Skagit County)mobilizeStarting line Feller +29. 3.8% split their ticket. About 234 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 07+39Precinct 607 (Whatcom County)mobilizeStarting line Feller +47. 3.8% split their ticket. About 151 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 08+39Precinct 606 (Whatcom County)mobilizeStarting line Feller +44. 4.3% split their ticket. About 151 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 09+39Precinct 801 (Whatcom County)mobilizeStarting line Feller +36. 2.1% split their ticket. About 251 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 10+38Precinct 605 (Whatcom County)persuadeStarting line Feller +41. 5.4% split their ticket. About 121 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 11+38Precinct 130 (Whatcom County)persuadeStarting line Feller +59. 5.0% split their ticket. About 86 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 12+36Precinct 608 (Whatcom County)mobilizeStarting line Feller +33. 3.5% split their ticket. About 197 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
The hidden path.
Precinct 604 (Whatcom County) carries the most.
Precinct 604 (Whatcom County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 66. It sits at Feller +42 on our starting line, and 4.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 127 (Whatcom County) is a turnout target.
Feller's side leads Precinct 127 (Whatcom County) by about 57 points on our starting line, and it cast about 155 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 31 votes there.
Precinct 609 (Whatcom County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 609 (Whatcom County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 7.5 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 8,683 net votes. The gap is 79,485. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.5 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Feller's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 708
- Slope
- 0.943
- R²
- 0.993
- Residual SD
- 2.5 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 109
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Feller's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 16.
- Now to October 15Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Feller, with Larsen, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 16 to 22Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 7,217 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 23 to 29Bank the ballots
Every registered voter is mailed a ballot by October 16. Ballots count if postmarked by November 3, and drop boxes and county voting centers stay open until 8 p.m. on Election Day. Keep chasing every supporter's ballot until it comes back, so the list of unreturned ballots shrinks every day.
- October 30 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 11,534 of them live where Feller is favored. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by November 3, and drop boxes close at 8 p.m. that day. Voters can still register and vote in person at a county voting center through Election Day.
- November 3Election day
Washington has no polling places: drop boxes and county voting centers stay open until 8 p.m., and voters can register in person and vote the same day. The last calls go to identified supporters whose ballots have not come back, with their nearest drop box in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 23.5 points; Ferguson carried the 2024 governor's race by 16.4 points; Murray carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 18.5 points.
- Feller wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Larsen.
- In Precinct 604 (Whatcom County) and Precinct 127 (Whatcom County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- It would take a national shift of about 20.8 points toward Feller's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
2,947 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 56,246 dials to 18,749 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,969 at our published rates: 18,749 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Edwin H. Feller (R)
A Lynden resident who grew up on a Whatcom County dairy farm and built a career as an HVAC contractor, he is making his first run for office on public safety, energy and immigration.
Rick Larsen (D)
U.S. representative since 2001 and ranking member of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, he previously served on the Snohomish County Council. He holds a BA from Pacific Lutheran University and an MPA from the University of Minnesota.
Cash on hand $652,100 and $2,038,786 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 27, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Larsen +23.3. Edwin H. Feller needs 79,782 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.
Questions
Can Edwin H. Feller win Washington's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 8,683 net votes against a gap of 79,485; the rest would take a 20.8-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Edwin H. Feller needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 604 (Whatcom County), Precinct 609 (Whatcom County), Precinct 127 (Whatcom County), Precinct 603 (Whatcom County), Precinct 611 (Whatcom County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Edwin H. Feller need to persuade?
About 3,608 voters who lean Rick Larsen today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 7,217 persuadable voters leaning Rick Larsen.
When are ballots mailed in Washington in 2026?
Washington votes by mail. County elections offices mail every registered voter a ballot by October 16, 2026, 18 days before Election Day, and county voting centers open the same day. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received before counties certify; drop boxes close at 8 p.m. on Election Day. Online and mail registration closes October 26, and voters can register and vote in person at a county voting center through 8 p.m. on Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Washington Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Washington Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Washington Secretary of State, election results
- Washington Secretary of State, election results and voters' pamphlets
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)