Upset Brief · WA-03 · Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) vs. John Braun (R)

Gluesenkamp Perez can win. The plan uses 49 percent of what history allows.

15%
odds today
52%
odds with the plan
17,190
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 16
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 953 (Clark County)
    Starting line Gluesenkamp Perez +29. 4.9% split their ticket. About 283 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +127
  2. 02
    Precinct 450 (Clark County)
    Starting line Gluesenkamp Perez +21. 6.0% split their ticket.
    +122
  3. 03
    Precinct 964 (Clark County)
    Starting line Gluesenkamp Perez +18. 5.7% split their ticket.
    +117
  4. 04
    Hillcrest (Cowlitz County)
    Starting line Braun +3. 7.0% split their ticket.
    +117
  5. 05
    Precinct 448 (Clark County)
    Starting line Gluesenkamp Perez +20. 4.9% split their ticket.
    +116
  6. 06
    Precinct 905 (Clark County)
    Starting line Gluesenkamp Perez +16. 6.4% split their ticket.
    +113

The top 12 precincts carry 8% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    33,772 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Braun, plus the 16 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +16,464
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 34,976 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Gluesenkamp Perez's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,325
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Gluesenkamp Perez's way.
    +260
What has to be true
  1. Gluesenkamp Perez wins 24 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Braun.
  2. In Precinct 953 (Clark County), 17 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 49 percent of what recent Washington results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    648 precincts, R² 0.982, 102 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -26,982 to 29,204 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Perez $2,064,820 cash on hand; Braun $1,267,035.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    30,735 households, 92,205 dials, about 4,832 live conversations: an estimated $9,894 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $9,894 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Washington races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Washington Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.