How Marie Gluesenkamp Perez wins.
Braun starts 5.3 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Gluesenkamp Perez needs 17,190 net votes, and the plan uses 49 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Precinct 953 (Clark County), Precinct 450 (Clark County) and Precinct 964 (Clark County).
Gluesenkamp Perez can win. The plan uses 49 percent of what history allows.
161,408 votes.
That is half of the 322,814 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Gluesenkamp Perez stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: Braun +5.3 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
15% today. 52% with the plan.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 33,772 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Braun, plus the 16 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Gluesenkamp Perez needs to win 24 percent of the ones now leaning Braun.
Who. At least 34,976 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Gluesenkamp Perez's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Gluesenkamp Perez's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 18,049 net votes against a gap of 17,190. That is a win.
12 precincts carry 8% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+127Precinct 953 (Clark County)persuadeStarting line Gluesenkamp Perez +29. 4.9% split their ticket. About 283 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+122Precinct 450 (Clark County)persuadeStarting line Gluesenkamp Perez +21. 6.0% split their ticket.
- 03+117Precinct 964 (Clark County)persuadeStarting line Gluesenkamp Perez +18. 5.7% split their ticket.
- 04+117Hillcrest (Cowlitz County)persuadeStarting line Braun +3. 7.0% split their ticket.
- 05+116Precinct 448 (Clark County)persuadeStarting line Gluesenkamp Perez +20. 4.9% split their ticket.
- 06+113Precinct 905 (Clark County)persuadeStarting line Gluesenkamp Perez +16. 6.4% split their ticket.
- 07+112Precinct 620 (Clark County)persuadeStarting line Braun +25. 7.2% split their ticket.
- 08+109Precinct 451 (Clark County)persuadeStarting line Gluesenkamp Perez +18. 6.7% split their ticket.
- 09+108Precinct 914 (Clark County)persuadeStarting line Braun +6. 5.4% split their ticket.
- 10+108Precinct 560 (Clark County)persuadeStarting line Gluesenkamp Perez +9. 5.3% split their ticket.
- 11+108Adna (Lewis County)persuadeStarting line Braun +50. 6.2% split their ticket.
- 12+106Precinct 966 (Clark County)persuadeStarting line Gluesenkamp Perez +1. 7.8% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Precinct 953 (Clark County) carries the most.
Precinct 953 (Clark County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 127. It sits at Gluesenkamp Perez +29 on our starting line, and 4.9 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 953 (Clark County) is also the top turnout target.
Gluesenkamp Perez's side leads Precinct 953 (Clark County) by about 29 points on our starting line, and it cast about 283 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 28 votes there.
Precinct 966 (Clark County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 966 (Clark County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 7.8 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Gluesenkamp Perez has the cash edge.
As of July 15, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Gluesenkamp Perez had $2.06 million in cash on hand to Braun's $1.27 million. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Gluesenkamp Perez's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 648
- Slope
- 0.937
- R²
- 0.982
- Residual SD
- 3.4 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 102
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Gluesenkamp Perez's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 16.
- Now to October 15Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Gluesenkamp Perez, with Braun, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 16 to 22Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 16,464 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 23 to 29Bank the ballots
Every registered voter is mailed a ballot by October 16. Ballots count if postmarked by November 3, and drop boxes and county voting centers stay open until 8 p.m. on Election Day. Keep chasing every supporter's ballot until it comes back, so the list of unreturned ballots shrinks every day.
- October 30 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 34,976 of them live where Gluesenkamp Perez is favored. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by November 3, and drop boxes close at 8 p.m. that day. Voters can still register and vote in person at a county voting center through Election Day.
- November 3Election day
Washington has no polling places: drop boxes and county voting centers stay open until 8 p.m., and voters can register in person and vote the same day. The last calls go to identified supporters whose ballots have not come back, with their nearest drop box in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 3.3 points; Reichert carried the 2024 governor's race by 7.7 points; Smiley carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 7.7 points.
- Gluesenkamp Perez wins 24 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Braun.
- In Precinct 953 (Clark County), 17 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- No national wave is required. The plan uses 49 percent of what recent Washington results show is possible.
- The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
4,832 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 92,205 dials to 30,735 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $9,894 at our published rates: 30,735 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
U.S. representative since 2023 and a co-chair of the Blue Dog Coalition, she co-owned an auto repair shop with her husband before her election and lives in rural Skamania County; she holds a BA from Reed College.
Cash on hand $2,064,820 and $6,292,683 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.
John Braun (R)
Washington Senate Republican leader since 2021 and state senator for the 20th District since 2013, he is a retired Navy captain with 31 years of service and president of Braun Northwest, the family-owned emergency vehicle manufacturer in Chehalis. He holds an electrical engineering degree from the University of Washington and an MS and MBA from the University of Michigan.
Cash on hand $1,267,035 and $2,214,441 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 27, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Braun +5.3. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez needs 17,291 net votes. Odds 15% today, 52% with the plan.
Questions
Can Marie Gluesenkamp Perez win Washington's 3rd Congressional District in 2026?
Yes, on the math. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez needs 17,190 net votes, and recent Washington results show about 37,024 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 49 percent of that.
Where are the votes Marie Gluesenkamp Perez needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 953 (Clark County), Precinct 450 (Clark County), Precinct 964 (Clark County), Hillcrest (Cowlitz County), Precinct 448 (Clark County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Marie Gluesenkamp Perez need to persuade?
About 8,232 voters who lean John Braun today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 24 percent of the 33,772 persuadable voters leaning John Braun.
When are ballots mailed in Washington in 2026?
Washington votes by mail. County elections offices mail every registered voter a ballot by October 16, 2026, 18 days before Election Day, and county voting centers open the same day. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received before counties certify; drop boxes close at 8 p.m. on Election Day. Online and mail registration closes October 26, and voters can register and vote in person at a county voting center through 8 p.m. on Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Washington Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Washington Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Washington Secretary of State, election results
- Washington Secretary of State, election results and voters' pamphlets
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
- Poll: Emerson College (2026-07-08 to 2026-07-10)
- Poll: co/efficient (R) (2026-04-25 to 2026-04-29)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Washington's 3rd congressional district
- OPB: Washington’s 3rd District could be among the most competitive House races this fall
- Wikipedia: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez