Upset Brief · WA-04 · John Duresky (D) vs. Amanda McKinney (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 27.2-point national wave.

0%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
70,467
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 16
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 2103 (Yakima County)
    Starting line Duresky +32. 3.8% split their ticket. About 370 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +47
  2. 02
    Mazama (Okanogan County)
    Starting line Duresky +64. 2.8% split their ticket. About 130 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +42
  3. 03
    Precinct 2501 (Yakima County)
    Starting line Duresky +29. 5.2% split their ticket. About 324 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +40
  4. 04
    Precinct 109 (Klickitat County)
    Starting line Duresky +48. 2.8% split their ticket. About 164 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +39
  5. 05
    Precinct 004 (Franklin County)
    Starting line Duresky +22. 7.6% split their ticket. About 410 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +38
  6. 06
    Precinct 0501 (Yakima County)
    Starting line Duresky +20. 8.1% split their ticket. About 334 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +37

The top 12 precincts carry 7% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    5,249 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McKinney today.
    +5,249
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 6,287 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Duresky's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +505
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Duresky's way.
    +558

Plus a national shift of 27.2 points of margin (64,154 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Duresky wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McKinney.
  2. In Precinct 2103 (Yakima County) and Precinct 2501 (Yakima County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 27.2 points toward Duresky's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    691 precincts, R² 0.936, 131 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -91,615 to -36,897 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Duresky $34,309 cash on hand; McKinney $215,447.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    12,683 households, 38,049 dials, about 1,994 live conversations: an estimated $5,345 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $5,345 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Washington races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Washington Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.