Washington · U.S. House · District 4 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for John Duresky.

Q: Can John Duresky win Washington's 4th Congressional District in 2026?

Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 6,312 net votes against a gap of 70,467; the rest would take a 27.2-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.

Q: Where are the votes John Duresky needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 2103 (Yakima County), Mazama (Okanogan County), Precinct 2501 (Yakima County), Precinct 109 (Klickitat County), Precinct 004 (Franklin County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does John Duresky need to persuade?

About 2,624 voters who lean Amanda McKinney today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 5,249 persuadable voters leaning Amanda McKinney.

Q: When are ballots mailed in Washington in 2026?

Washington votes by mail. County elections offices mail every registered voter a ballot by October 16, 2026, 18 days before Election Day, and county voting centers open the same day. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received before counties certify; drop boxes close at 8 p.m. on Election Day. Online and mail registration closes October 26, and voters can register and vote in person at a county voting center through 8 p.m. on Election Day.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Washington Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

McKinney starts 29.9 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 6,312 net votes toward Duresky, a 2.7-point gain. Winning outright would take a 27.2-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Duresky the one standing if one comes.

70,467

net votes between Duresky and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 16.

29.9 pts

McKinney lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Washington races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 27.2-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan<1%

Net votes to find70,467

WherePrecinct 2103 (Yakima County), Mazama (Okanogan County), Precinct 2501 (Yakima County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: McKinney +29.8. John Duresky needs 70,631 net votes. Odds 0% today, under 1% with the plan.

The number

117,726 votes.

That is half of the 235,451 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Duresky stands today, and what is missing:

80,141 John Duresky baseline

150,609 Amanda McKinney baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, U.S. Senate in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Duresky wins in

<1%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Duresky short by 64,229.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

5,249

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 5,249

Who. 5,249 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McKinney today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Duresky needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning McKinney.

Mobilize

505

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 6,287

Who. At least 6,287 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Duresky's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

558

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,595

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Duresky's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 6,312 net votes against a gap of 70,467. Still 64,155 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 27.2 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 7% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 2103 (Yakima County)mobilize
Starting line Duresky +32. 3.8% split their ticket. About 370 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+47
02
Mazama (Okanogan County)mobilize
Starting line Duresky +64. 2.8% split their ticket. About 130 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+42
03
Precinct 2501 (Yakima County)mobilize
Starting line Duresky +29. 5.2% split their ticket. About 324 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+40
04
Precinct 109 (Klickitat County)mobilize
Starting line Duresky +48. 2.8% split their ticket. About 164 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+39
05
Precinct 004 (Franklin County)mobilize
Starting line Duresky +22. 7.6% split their ticket. About 410 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+38
06
Precinct 0501 (Yakima County)mobilize
Starting line Duresky +20. 8.1% split their ticket. About 334 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+37
07
Precinct 6151 (Benton County)persuade
Starting line McKinney +18. 6.1% split their ticket.
+36
08
Precinct 6315 (Benton County)persuade
Starting line McKinney +32. 5.8% split their ticket.
+33
09
Precinct 110 (Klickitat County)mobilize
Starting line Duresky +46. 1.8% split their ticket. About 151 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+31
10
Precinct 6150 (Benton County)persuade
Starting line McKinney +28. 7.7% split their ticket.
+30
11
Precinct 6281 (Benton County)persuade
Starting line McKinney +11. 9.1% split their ticket.
+30
12
O Sullivan Dam 2 069 (Grant County)persuade
Starting line McKinney +54. 5.8% split their ticket.
+30

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 2103 (Yakima County) carries the most.

Precinct 2103 (Yakima County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 47. It sits at Duresky +32 on our starting line, and 3.8 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 2501 (Yakima County) is a turnout target.

Duresky's side leads Precinct 2501 (Yakima County) by about 29 points on our starting line, and it cast about 324 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 32 votes there.

Precinct 6281 (Benton County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 6281 (Benton County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 9.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 15, 2026, McKinney had $215K in cash on hand to Duresky's $34K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Duresky's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 691
Slope: 0.911
R²: 0.936
Residual SD: 5.6 pts
Crossover precincts: 131

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Duresky's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 16.

Now to October 15
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Duresky, with McKinney, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 16 to 22
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 5,249 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 23 to 29
Bank the ballots
Every registered voter is mailed a ballot by October 16. Ballots count if postmarked by November 3, and drop boxes and county voting centers stay open until 8 p.m. on Election Day. Keep chasing every supporter's ballot until it comes back, so the list of unreturned ballots shrinks every day.
October 30 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 6,287 of them live where Duresky is favored. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by November 3, and drop boxes close at 8 p.m. that day. Voters can still register and vote in person at a county voting center through Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Washington has no polling places: drop boxes and county voting centers stay open until 8 p.m., and voters can register in person and vote the same day. The last calls go to identified supporters whose ballots have not come back, with their nearest drop box in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 20.6 points; Reichert carried the 2024 governor's race by 25.8 points; Smiley carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 31.3 points.

Duresky wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McKinney.
In Precinct 2103 (Yakima County) and Precinct 2501 (Yakima County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
It would take a national shift of about 27.2 points toward Duresky's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

1,994 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 38,049 dials to 12,683 households, before the last ballot is cast.

13K

households on the target list

38K

dials across three attempts

1,994

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $5,345 at our published rates: 12,683 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

John Duresky (D)

A West Richland combat veteran and retired Air Force major who served 24 years as a bomber avionics technician and cyberspace officer, then worked as a project control officer at the Hanford site. He is endorsed by the Washington State Labor Council and the Washington Education Association.

Cash on hand $34,309 and $179,020 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Amanda McKinney (R)

Yakima County commissioner since 2020 and a longtime mortgage banker, she serves on state and national county leadership boards for agriculture and rural affairs and is endorsed by President Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson.

Cash on hand $215,447 and $981,820 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: McKinney +29.8. John Duresky needs 70,631 net votes. Odds 0% today, under 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can John Duresky win Washington's 4th Congressional District in 2026?

Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 6,312 net votes against a gap of 70,467; the rest would take a 27.2-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.

Where are the votes John Duresky needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 2103 (Yakima County), Mazama (Okanogan County), Precinct 2501 (Yakima County), Precinct 109 (Klickitat County), Precinct 004 (Franklin County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does John Duresky need to persuade?

About 2,624 voters who lean Amanda McKinney today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 5,249 persuadable voters leaning Amanda McKinney.

When are ballots mailed in Washington in 2026?

Washington votes by mail. County elections offices mail every registered voter a ballot by October 16, 2026, 18 days before Election Day, and county voting centers open the same day. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received before counties certify; drop boxes close at 8 p.m. on Election Day. Online and mail registration closes October 26, and voters can register and vote in person at a county voting center through 8 p.m. on Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Washington Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Washington Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.