Upset Brief · WA-05 · Carmela Conroy (D) vs. Michael Baumgartner (R), incumbent

Conroy gets within 6,696 votes on campaign work alone. A 2.1-point national shift finishes it.

12%
odds today
33%
odds with the plan
19,015
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 16
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 3204 (Spokane County)
    Starting line Conroy +68. 3.9% split their ticket. About 267 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +73
  2. 02
    Precinct 3230 (Spokane County)
    Starting line Conroy +59. 8.3% split their ticket. About 162 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +73
  3. 03
    Precinct 3336 (Spokane County)
    Starting line Conroy +45. 2.9% split their ticket. About 381 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +67
  4. 04
    Precinct 3216 (Spokane County)
    Starting line Conroy +48. 6.2% split their ticket. About 222 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +64
  5. 05
    Pullman 1146 (Whitman County)
    Starting line Conroy +39. 9.0% split their ticket. About 190 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +62
  6. 06
    Precinct 3232 (Spokane County)
    Starting line Conroy +58. 5.0% split their ticket. About 195 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +62

The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    8,888 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Baumgartner today.
    +8,888
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 27,752 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Conroy's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,966
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Conroy's way.
    +465

Plus a national shift of 2.1 points of margin (6,696 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Conroy wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Baumgartner.
  2. In Precinct 3204 (Spokane County) and Precinct 3336 (Spokane County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 2.1 points toward Conroy's side between now and November 3.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    835 precincts, R² 0.979, 131 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -33,759 to 20,181 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Conroy $74,463 cash on hand; Baumgartner $953,784.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    32,332 households, 96,995 dials, about 5,083 live conversations: an estimated $10,408 at published rates.
For the campaign

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For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Washington races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Washington Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.