Washington · U.S. House · District 5 · November 3, 2026

How Carmela Conroy wins.

Baumgartner starts 6.0 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Campaign work gets Conroy within 6,696 votes; a 2.1-point shift in the national mood finishes it. The most net votes are in Precinct 3204 (Spokane County), Precinct 3230 (Spokane County) and Precinct 3336 (Spokane County).

19,015

net votes between Conroy and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 16.

6.0 pts

Baumgartner lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Washington races ranked ›

Conroy gets within 6,696 votes on campaign work alone. A 2.1-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today12%

Odds with the plan33%

Net votes to find19,015

WherePrecinct 3204 (Spokane County), Precinct 3230 (Spokane County), Precinct 3336 (Spokane County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Baumgartner +6.0. Carmela Conroy needs 19,286 net votes. Odds 12% today, 33% with the plan.

The number

158,459 votes.

That is half of the 316,917 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Conroy stands today, and what is missing:

147,579 Carmela Conroy baseline

166,594 Michael Baumgartner baseline

Starting line: Baumgartner +6.0 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

12% today. 33% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Conroy wins in

33%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

12%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Conroy short by 6,867.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

8,888

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 8,888

Who. 8,888 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Baumgartner today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Conroy needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Baumgartner.

Mobilize

2,966

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 27,752

Who. At least 27,752 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Conroy's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

465

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,329

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Conroy's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 12,319 net votes against a gap of 19,015. Still 6,696 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 2.1 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 6% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 3204 (Spokane County)mobilize
Starting line Conroy +68. 3.9% split their ticket. About 267 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+73
02
Precinct 3230 (Spokane County)persuade
Starting line Conroy +59. 8.3% split their ticket. About 162 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+73
03
Precinct 3336 (Spokane County)mobilize
Starting line Conroy +45. 2.9% split their ticket. About 381 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+67
04
Precinct 3216 (Spokane County)mobilize
Starting line Conroy +48. 6.2% split their ticket. About 222 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+64
05
Pullman 1146 (Whitman County)persuade
Starting line Conroy +39. 9.0% split their ticket. About 190 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+62
06
Precinct 3232 (Spokane County)mobilize
Starting line Conroy +58. 5.0% split their ticket. About 195 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+62
07
Precinct 3236 (Spokane County)persuade
Starting line Conroy +29. 10.3% split their ticket. About 202 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+62
08
Precinct 3231 (Spokane County)mobilize
Starting line Conroy +58. 6.6% split their ticket. About 163 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+62
09
Precinct 3203 (Spokane County)mobilize
Starting line Conroy +52. 2.4% split their ticket. About 295 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+60
10
Pullman 1102 (Whitman County)mobilize
Starting line Conroy +75. 2.2% split their ticket. About 223 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+60
11
Precinct 3200 (Spokane County)mobilize
Starting line Conroy +40. 7.3% split their ticket. About 296 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+59
12
Precinct 3210 (Spokane County)mobilize
Starting line Conroy +56. 3.3% split their ticket. About 241 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+59

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 3204 (Spokane County) carries the most.

Precinct 3204 (Spokane County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 73. It sits at Conroy +68 on our starting line, and 3.9 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 3336 (Spokane County) is a turnout target.

Conroy's side leads Precinct 3336 (Spokane County) by about 45 points on our starting line, and it cast about 381 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 58 votes there.

Precinct 3236 (Spokane County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 3236 (Spokane County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 10.3 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 15, 2026, Baumgartner had $954K in cash on hand to Conroy's $74K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Conroy's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 835
Slope: 0.938
R²: 0.979
Residual SD: 4.1 pts
Crossover precincts: 131

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Conroy's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 16.

Now to October 15
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Conroy, with Baumgartner, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 16 to 22
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 8,888 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 23 to 29
Bank the ballots
Every registered voter is mailed a ballot by October 16. Ballots count if postmarked by November 3, and drop boxes and county voting centers stay open until 8 p.m. on Election Day. Keep chasing every supporter's ballot until it comes back, so the list of unreturned ballots shrinks every day.
October 30 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 27,752 of them live where Conroy is favored. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by November 3, and drop boxes close at 8 p.m. that day. Voters can still register and vote in person at a county voting center through Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Washington has no polling places: drop boxes and county voting centers stay open until 8 p.m., and voters can register in person and vote the same day. The last calls go to identified supporters whose ballots have not come back, with their nearest drop box in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 10.7 points; Reichert carried the 2024 governor's race by 15.3 points; Smiley carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 15.5 points.

Conroy wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Baumgartner.
In Precinct 3204 (Spokane County) and Precinct 3336 (Spokane County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 2.1 points toward Conroy's side between now and November 3.
The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

5,083 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 96,995 dials to 32,332 households, before the last ballot is cast.

32K

households on the target list

97K

dials across three attempts

5,083

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $10,408 at our published rates: 32,332 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Carmela Conroy (D)

A former career Foreign Service officer whose diplomatic career of more than two decades included service as U.S. consul general in Lahore, Pakistan, and postings across Asia, Europe and the Pacific, she is also a former Spokane County deputy prosecuting attorney and former chair of the Spokane County Democratic Party.

Cash on hand $74,463 and $396,217 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Michael Baumgartner (R)

U.S. representative since 2025, he previously served as Spokane County treasurer (2019 to 2025) and in the Washington State Senate (2011 to 2019), and earlier worked as a U.S. diplomat.

Cash on hand $953,784 and $1,738,226 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Baumgartner +6.0. Carmela Conroy needs 19,286 net votes. Odds 12% today, 33% with the plan.

Questions

Can Carmela Conroy win Washington's 5th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 12,319 net votes; the gap is 19,015. The rest would take a 2.1-point national shift.

Where are the votes Carmela Conroy needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 3204 (Spokane County), Precinct 3230 (Spokane County), Precinct 3336 (Spokane County), Precinct 3216 (Spokane County), Pullman 1146 (Whitman County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Carmela Conroy need to persuade?

About 4,444 voters who lean Michael Baumgartner today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 8,888 persuadable voters leaning Michael Baumgartner.

When are ballots mailed in Washington in 2026?

Washington votes by mail. County elections offices mail every registered voter a ballot by October 16, 2026, 18 days before Election Day, and county voting centers open the same day. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received before counties certify; drop boxes close at 8 p.m. on Election Day. Online and mail registration closes October 26, and voters can register and vote in person at a county voting center through 8 p.m. on Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Washington Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Washington Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.