Upset Brief · WA-06 · Teresa Fox (R) vs. Emily Randall (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 13.8-point national wave.

1%
odds today
3%
odds with the plan
56,968
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 16
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 26-345 (Pierce County)
    Starting line Randall +2. 11.1% split their ticket.
    +49
  2. 02
    CP1 00000263 (Kitsap County)
    Starting line Fox +23. 5.4% split their ticket. About 284 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +44
  3. 03
    Pickering (Mason County)
    Starting line Fox +15. 7.7% split their ticket. About 146 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +43
  4. 04
    CP7 00000157 (Kitsap County)
    Starting line Fox +27. 3.9% split their ticket. About 268 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +40
  5. 05
    Precinct 27-461 (Pierce County)
    Starting line Randall +22. 8.0% split their ticket.
    +39
  6. 06
    Precinct 26-338 (Pierce County)
    Starting line Fox +13. 8.9% split their ticket. About 86 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +39

The top 12 precincts carry 5% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    7,822 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Randall today.
    +7,822
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 10,805 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Fox's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +736
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Fox's way.
    +441

Plus a national shift of 13.8 points of margin (47,968 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Fox wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Randall.
  2. In CP7 00000157 (Kitsap County) and CP1 00000263 (Kitsap County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 13.8 points toward Fox's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    661 precincts, R² 0.977, 140 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -88,698 to -7,345 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Fox $2,836 cash on hand; Randall $241,631.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    19,120 households, 57,359 dials, about 3,006 live conversations: an estimated $7,107 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,107 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Washington races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Washington Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.