Washington · U.S. House · District 6 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Teresa Fox.

Randall starts 16.4 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 8,999 net votes toward Fox, a 2.6-point gain. Winning outright would take a 13.8-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Fox the one standing if one comes.

56,968

net votes between Fox and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 16.

16.4 pts

Randall lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Washington races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 13.8-point national wave.

Odds today1%

Odds with the plan3%

Net votes to find56,968

WherePrecinct 26-345 (Pierce County), CP1 00000263 (Kitsap County), Pickering (Mason County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Randall +16.5. Teresa Fox needs 58,789 net votes. Odds 1% today, 2% with the plan.

The number

173,487 votes.

That is half of the 346,973 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Fox stands today, and what is missing:

143,476 Teresa Fox baseline

200,444 Emily Randall baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, U.S. Senate in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Fox wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Fox short by 47,758.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

7,822

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 7,822

Who. 7,822 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Randall today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Fox needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Randall.

Mobilize

736

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 10,805

Who. At least 10,805 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Fox's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

441

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,260

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Fox's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 8,999 net votes against a gap of 56,968. Still 47,969 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 13.8 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 5% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 26-345 (Pierce County)persuade
Starting line Randall +2. 11.1% split their ticket.
+49
02
CP1 00000263 (Kitsap County)mobilize
Starting line Fox +23. 5.4% split their ticket. About 284 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+44
03
Pickering (Mason County)persuade
Starting line Fox +15. 7.7% split their ticket. About 146 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+43
04
CP7 00000157 (Kitsap County)mobilize
Starting line Fox +27. 3.9% split their ticket. About 268 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+40
05
Precinct 27-461 (Pierce County)persuade
Starting line Randall +22. 8.0% split their ticket.
+39
06
Precinct 26-338 (Pierce County)persuade
Starting line Fox +13. 8.9% split their ticket. About 86 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+39
07
South Arcadia (Mason County)persuade
Starting line Fox +19. 5.8% split their ticket. About 212 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+38
08
Precinct 27-462 (Pierce County)persuade
Starting line Randall +20. 8.1% split their ticket.
+37
09
Precinct 26-350 (Pierce County)persuade
Starting line even. 7.2% split their ticket.
+37
10
Precinct 26-304 (Pierce County)persuade
Starting line Randall +16. 7.6% split their ticket.
+36
11
North Bush 059 (Grays Harbor County)mobilize
Starting line Fox +24. 5.3% split their ticket. About 229 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+36
12
Precinct 26-326 (Pierce County)persuade
Starting line Randall +3. 7.3% split their ticket.
+36

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 26-345 (Pierce County) carries the most.

Precinct 26-345 (Pierce County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 49. It sits at Randall +2 on our starting line, and 11.1 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

CP7 00000157 (Kitsap County) is a turnout target.

Fox's side leads CP7 00000157 (Kitsap County) by about 27 points on our starting line, and it cast about 268 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 24 votes there.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 15, 2026, Randall had $242K in cash on hand to Fox's $2,836. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 8,999 net votes. The gap is 56,968. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.6 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Fox's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 661
Slope: 0.977
R²: 0.977
Residual SD: 3.9 pts
Crossover precincts: 140

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Fox's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 16.

Now to October 15
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Fox, with Randall, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 16 to 22
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 7,822 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 23 to 29
Bank the ballots
Every registered voter is mailed a ballot by October 16. Ballots count if postmarked by November 3, and drop boxes and county voting centers stay open until 8 p.m. on Election Day. Keep chasing every supporter's ballot until it comes back, so the list of unreturned ballots shrinks every day.
October 30 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 10,805 of them live where Fox is favored. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by November 3, and drop boxes close at 8 p.m. that day. Voters can still register and vote in person at a county voting center through Election Day.
November 3
Election day
Washington has no polling places: drop boxes and county voting centers stay open until 8 p.m., and voters can register in person and vote the same day. The last calls go to identified supporters whose ballots have not come back, with their nearest drop box in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 19.2 points; Ferguson carried the 2024 governor's race by 11.9 points; Murray carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 14.4 points.

Fox wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Randall.
In CP7 00000157 (Kitsap County) and CP1 00000263 (Kitsap County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
It would take a national shift of about 13.8 points toward Fox's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

3,006 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 57,359 dials to 19,120 households, before the last ballot is cast.

19K

households on the target list

57K

dials across three attempts

3,006

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,107 at our published rates: 19,120 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Teresa Fox (R)

A Bremerton occupational safety professional and emergency manager who has worked in shipyards, naval facilities, offshore operations, the state Department of Labor and Industries and Olympic College, she was endorsed by all six Republican county parties in the district.

Cash on hand $2,836 and $27,615 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Emily Randall (D)

U.S. representative since 2025 and a healthcare advocate, she served in the Washington State Senate from 2019 to 2024.

Cash on hand $241,631 and $1,195,247 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Randall +16.5. Teresa Fox needs 58,789 net votes. Odds 1% today, 2% with the plan.

Questions

Can Teresa Fox win Washington's 6th Congressional District in 2026?

Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 8,999 net votes against a gap of 56,968; the rest would take a 13.8-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.

Where are the votes Teresa Fox needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 26-345 (Pierce County), CP1 00000263 (Kitsap County), Pickering (Mason County), CP7 00000157 (Kitsap County), Precinct 27-461 (Pierce County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Teresa Fox need to persuade?

About 3,911 voters who lean Emily Randall today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 7,822 persuadable voters leaning Emily Randall.

When are ballots mailed in Washington in 2026?

Washington votes by mail. County elections offices mail every registered voter a ballot by October 16, 2026, 18 days before Election Day, and county voting centers open the same day. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received before counties certify; drop boxes close at 8 p.m. on Election Day. Online and mail registration closes October 26, and voters can register and vote in person at a county voting center through 8 p.m. on Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Washington Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Washington Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.