Upset Brief · WA-07 · Nirav Sheth (R) vs. Pramila Jayapal (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 69.2-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
251,737
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 16
Where
  1. 01
    Seattle Precinct 43-1992 (King County)
    Starting line Jayapal +16. 16.5% split their ticket.
    +45
  2. 02
    Seattle Precinct 46-2266 (King County)
    Starting line Jayapal +30. 20.5% split their ticket.
    +40
  3. 03
    Seattle Precinct 43-1819 (King County)
    Starting line Jayapal +54. 16.2% split their ticket.
    +30
  4. 04
    Seattle Precinct 46-1959 (King County)
    Starting line Jayapal +55. 10.2% split their ticket.
    +29
  5. 05
    Burien Precinct 33-1057 (King County)
    Starting line Jayapal +41. 9.7% split their ticket.
    +28
  6. 06
    Seattle Precinct 46-2247 (King County)
    Starting line Jayapal +70. 10.8% split their ticket.
    +28

The top 12 precincts carry 5% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    7,329 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Jayapal today.
    +7,329
  • M
    Mobilize
    Few precincts give Sheth's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
    +0
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
    +174

Plus a national shift of 69.2 points of margin (244,234 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Sheth wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Jayapal.
  2. It would take a national shift of about 69.2 points toward Sheth's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    1,075 precincts, R² 0.857, 137 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -284,727 to -203,862 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through the latest report
    Sheth $5,044 cash on hand; Jayapal $1,766,786.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    10,457 households, 31,370 dials, about 1,644 live conversations: an estimated $4,666 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $4,666 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Washington races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Washington Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.